Awareness programs control infectious disease - Multiple delay induced mathematical model

David Greenhalgh, Sourav Rana, Sudip Samanta, Tridip Sardar, Sabyasachi Bhattacharya, Joydev Chattopadhyay

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

56 Citations (Scopus)
251 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

We propose and analyze a mathematical model to study the impact of awareness programs on an infectious disease outbreak. These programs induce behavioral changes in the population, which divide the susceptible class into two subclasses, aware susceptible and unaware susceptible. The system can have a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The expression of the basic reproduction number and the conditions for the stability of the equilibria are derived. We further improve and study the model by introducing two time-delay factors, one for the time lag in memory fading of aware people and one for the delay between cases of disease occurring and mounting awareness programs. The delayed system has positive bounded solutions. We study various cases for the time delays and show that in general the system develops limit cycle oscillation through a Hopf bifurcation for increasing time delays. We show that under certain conditions on the parameters, the system is permanent. To verify our analytical findings, the numerical simulations on the model, using realistic parameters for Pneumococcus are performed.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)539-563
Number of pages25
JournalApplied Mathematics and Computation
Volume251
Early online date15 Dec 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Jan 2015

Keywords

  • epidemic model
  • numerical simulation
  • Hopf bifurcation
  • stability analysis
  • time delay
  • awareness programs

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