Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind farms

Athena Zitrou, Tim Bedford, Lesley Walls, Kevin Wilson, Keith Bell

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

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The UK offshore wind sector has developed rapidly, but needs to develop even further to meet the low carbon targets set by the government. In order to increase capacity and reduce costs, new offshore wind farms will use larger and more complex technology that goes beyond current understanding and experience.
As a result, predicting the technical performance of offshore wind farms involves a considerable amount of uncertainty, especially during early life when teething problems may arise. We present a model that allows us to distinguish between natural variability and state-of-knowledge uncertainty when assessing the growth
in technical performance of offshore wind farms over early operational life. As such, the model can be used to inform decisions to reduce uncertainties and to support effective risk management. To describe wind farm performance, we use an indicator we call availability-informed capability measures the capacity of the farm to
generate electricity. We use an example based on a two-phase Monte Carlo simulation to illustrate the use of
the model.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2013
Event22nd ESREL conference 2013 - Amsterdam, Netherlands
Duration: 29 Sept 20132 Oct 2013


Conference22nd ESREL conference 2013


  • availability growth
  • state-of-knowledge
  • offshore wind farms
  • uncertainty simulation


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