Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind farms

Athena Zitrou, Tim Bedford, Lesley Walls, Kevin Wilson, Keith Bell

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

The UK offshore wind sector has developed rapidly, but needs to develop even further to meet the low carbon targets set by the government. In order to increase capacity and reduce costs, new offshore wind farms will use larger and more complex technology that goes beyond current understanding and experience.
As a result, predicting the technical performance of offshore wind farms involves a considerable amount of uncertainty, especially during early life when teething problems may arise. We present a model that allows us to distinguish between natural variability and state-of-knowledge uncertainty when assessing the growth
in technical performance of offshore wind farms over early operational life. As such, the model can be used to inform decisions to reduce uncertainties and to support effective risk management. To describe wind farm performance, we use an indicator we call availability-informed capability measures the capacity of the farm to
generate electricity. We use an example based on a two-phase Monte Carlo simulation to illustrate the use of
the model.
LanguageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2013
Event22nd ESREL conference 2013 - Amsterdam, Netherlands
Duration: 29 Sep 20132 Oct 2013

Conference

Conference22nd ESREL conference 2013
CountryNetherlands
CityAmsterdam
Period29/09/132/10/13

Fingerprint

Offshore wind farms
Availability
Risk management
Electricity
Carbon
Uncertainty
Farm
Simulation
Costs

Keywords

  • availability growth
  • state-of-knowledge
  • offshore wind farms
  • uncertainty simulation

Cite this

Zitrou, A., Bedford, T., Walls, L., Wilson, K., & Bell, K. (2013). Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind farms. Paper presented at 22nd ESREL conference 2013, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Zitrou, Athena ; Bedford, Tim ; Walls, Lesley ; Wilson, Kevin ; Bell, Keith. / Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind farms. Paper presented at 22nd ESREL conference 2013, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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Zitrou, A, Bedford, T, Walls, L, Wilson, K & Bell, K 2013, 'Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind farms' Paper presented at 22nd ESREL conference 2013, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 29/09/13 - 2/10/13, .

Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind farms. / Zitrou, Athena; Bedford, Tim; Walls, Lesley; Wilson, Kevin; Bell, Keith.

2013. Paper presented at 22nd ESREL conference 2013, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

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AU - Zitrou, Athena

AU - Bedford, Tim

AU - Walls, Lesley

AU - Wilson, Kevin

AU - Bell, Keith

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AB - The UK offshore wind sector has developed rapidly, but needs to develop even further to meet the low carbon targets set by the government. In order to increase capacity and reduce costs, new offshore wind farms will use larger and more complex technology that goes beyond current understanding and experience.As a result, predicting the technical performance of offshore wind farms involves a considerable amount of uncertainty, especially during early life when teething problems may arise. We present a model that allows us to distinguish between natural variability and state-of-knowledge uncertainty when assessing the growthin technical performance of offshore wind farms over early operational life. As such, the model can be used to inform decisions to reduce uncertainties and to support effective risk management. To describe wind farm performance, we use an indicator we call availability-informed capability measures the capacity of the farm togenerate electricity. We use an example based on a two-phase Monte Carlo simulation to illustrate the use ofthe model.

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Zitrou A, Bedford T, Walls L, Wilson K, Bell K. Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind farms. 2013. Paper presented at 22nd ESREL conference 2013, Amsterdam, Netherlands.