Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind power plants

Athena Zitrou, Tim Bedford, Lesley Walls, Kevin Wilson, Keith Bell

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Abstract

The use of new offshore wind turbine designs in uncertain environments introduces considerable systemic performance risks. Current availability models fail to represent these risks adequately even though they could lead to significant under-performance of windfarm availability. Serial early failures lead to loss of generation and costly mitigation activities. In this paper we present a model for offshore wind power plant availability growth that captures both systemic uncertainty and natural variability on availability assessments, and represents the effect of interventions in the failure and repair processes. Our model is a decision-support tool designed to inform management decisions to implement measures to reduce uncertainties and grow availability more effectively and efficiently. We demonstrate the use of the model, which is developed in MATLAB, by using an illustrative example of a fictitious offshore wind power plant.
LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 12th Wind Integration Workshop
EditorsUta Betancourt, Thomas Ackermann
Pages785-788
Number of pages4
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Fingerprint

Wind power
Power plants
Availability
Offshore wind turbines
MATLAB
Repair
Uncertainty
Simulation
Power plant

Keywords

  • growth
  • state-of-knowledge
  • uncertainty simulation
  • offshore
  • wind power plants

Cite this

Zitrou, A., Bedford, T., Walls, L., Wilson, K., & Bell, K. (2014). Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind power plants. In U. Betancourt, & T. Ackermann (Eds.), Proceedings of the 12th Wind Integration Workshop (pp. 785-788)
Zitrou, Athena ; Bedford, Tim ; Walls, Lesley ; Wilson, Kevin ; Bell, Keith. / Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind power plants. Proceedings of the 12th Wind Integration Workshop. editor / Uta Betancourt ; Thomas Ackermann. 2014. pp. 785-788
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Zitrou, A, Bedford, T, Walls, L, Wilson, K & Bell, K 2014, Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind power plants. in U Betancourt & T Ackermann (eds), Proceedings of the 12th Wind Integration Workshop. pp. 785-788.

Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind power plants. / Zitrou, Athena; Bedford, Tim; Walls, Lesley; Wilson, Kevin; Bell, Keith.

Proceedings of the 12th Wind Integration Workshop. ed. / Uta Betancourt; Thomas Ackermann. 2014. p. 785-788.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

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N2 - The use of new offshore wind turbine designs in uncertain environments introduces considerable systemic performance risks. Current availability models fail to represent these risks adequately even though they could lead to significant under-performance of windfarm availability. Serial early failures lead to loss of generation and costly mitigation activities. In this paper we present a model for offshore wind power plant availability growth that captures both systemic uncertainty and natural variability on availability assessments, and represents the effect of interventions in the failure and repair processes. Our model is a decision-support tool designed to inform management decisions to implement measures to reduce uncertainties and grow availability more effectively and efficiently. We demonstrate the use of the model, which is developed in MATLAB, by using an illustrative example of a fictitious offshore wind power plant.

AB - The use of new offshore wind turbine designs in uncertain environments introduces considerable systemic performance risks. Current availability models fail to represent these risks adequately even though they could lead to significant under-performance of windfarm availability. Serial early failures lead to loss of generation and costly mitigation activities. In this paper we present a model for offshore wind power plant availability growth that captures both systemic uncertainty and natural variability on availability assessments, and represents the effect of interventions in the failure and repair processes. Our model is a decision-support tool designed to inform management decisions to implement measures to reduce uncertainties and grow availability more effectively and efficiently. We demonstrate the use of the model, which is developed in MATLAB, by using an illustrative example of a fictitious offshore wind power plant.

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Zitrou A, Bedford T, Walls L, Wilson K, Bell K. Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind power plants. In Betancourt U, Ackermann T, editors, Proceedings of the 12th Wind Integration Workshop. 2014. p. 785-788