Augmenting the Intuitive Logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation

James Derbyshire, George Wright

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    29 Citations (Scopus)
    29 Downloads (Pure)

    Abstract

    This paper shows the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘Intuitive Logics’, to be, in practice, overly-focused on uncovering cause of one type, known as ‘efficient cause’. We outline and apply a broader consideration of cause, leading to a more sophisticated analysis of uncertainty. Our focus is on incorporation of Aristotle’s nuanced analysis of causation. We incorporate the features of our augmented scenario development approach in a practical step-by-step methodology and draw out several implications for expert knowledge elicitation.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)254-266
    Number of pages12
    JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
    Volume33
    Issue number1
    Early online date4 May 2016
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2017

    Keywords

    • scenario planning
    • causation
    • uncertainty
    • Intuitive Logics
    • complexity

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