Abstract
This paper shows the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘Intuitive Logics’, to be, in practice, overly-focused on uncovering cause of one type, known as ‘efficient cause’. We outline and apply a broader consideration of cause, leading to a more sophisticated analysis of uncertainty. Our focus is on incorporation of Aristotle’s nuanced analysis of causation. We incorporate the features of our augmented scenario development approach in a practical step-by-step methodology and draw out several implications for expert knowledge elicitation.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 254-266 |
Number of pages | 12 |
Journal | International Journal of Forecasting |
Volume | 33 |
Issue number | 1 |
Early online date | 4 May 2016 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Jan 2017 |
Keywords
- scenario planning
- causation
- uncertainty
- Intuitive Logics
- complexity