Attribution of foodborne pathogens using structured expert elicitation

A.H. Havelaar, A.V. Galindo, D. Kurowicka, R.M. Cooke

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

85 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives: To estimate the fraction of human cases of enterically transmitted illness by five major pathways (food, environment, direct animal contact, human-human transmission, and travel) and by 11 groups within the food pathway. Methods: Food safety experts were asked to provide their estimates of the most likely range for each of the parameters. Joint probability distributions were created by probabilistic inversion (PI). Results: Sixteen experts participated in the study. PI resulted in good fits for most pathogens. Qualitatively, expert estimates were similar to earlier published studies but the estimated fraction of foodborne transmission was lower for most pathogens. Biologically less plausible pathways were given some weight by the experts. Uncertainties were smallest for pathogens with dominant transmission routes. Conclusions: Structured expert studies are a feasible method for source attribution, but methods need further development. Applications: These estimates can be combined with data on incidence, disease burden and costs to provide specific estimates of the public health impact of foodborne illness, and to identify the food groups that have the highest impact.
LanguageEnglish
Pages649-659
Number of pages11
JournalFoodborne Pathogens and Disease
Volume5
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2008

Fingerprint

expert opinion
food pathogens
Food
Cost of Illness
Foodborne Diseases
Food Safety
pathogens
source attribution
Uncertainty
Public Health
burden of disease
food groups
Weights and Measures
probability distribution
foodborne illness
travel
Incidence
food safety
public health
uncertainty

Keywords

  • disease transmission
  • food microbiology
  • public health
  • foodborne illness
  • probabilistic inversion
  • foodborne pathogens
  • Staphylococcus aureus
  • Clostridium perfringens
  • Campylobacter

Cite this

Havelaar, A.H. ; Galindo, A.V. ; Kurowicka, D. ; Cooke, R.M. / Attribution of foodborne pathogens using structured expert elicitation. In: Foodborne Pathogens and Disease. 2008 ; Vol. 5, No. 5. pp. 649-659.
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Attribution of foodborne pathogens using structured expert elicitation. / Havelaar, A.H.; Galindo, A.V.; Kurowicka, D.; Cooke, R.M.

In: Foodborne Pathogens and Disease, Vol. 5, No. 5, 01.10.2008, p. 649-659.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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