Associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the Glasgow conurbation, UK

I.J. Beverland, M. Carder, G.R. Cohen, M.R. Heal, R.M. Agius

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

To examine associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the population of Glasgow and the adjacent towns of Renfrew and Paisley over a 25-year period at different time lags (0–30 days).
Generalised linear (Poisson) models were used to investigate the relationship between lagged black smoke concentrations and daily mortality, with allowance for confounding by cold temperature, between 1974 and 1998.
When a range of lag periods were investigated significant associations were noted between temperature-adjusted black smoke exposure and all-cause mortality at lag periods of 13–18 and 19–24 days, and respiratory mortality at lag periods of 1–6, 7–12, and 13–18 days. Significant associations between cardiovascular mortality and temperature-adjusted black smoke were not observed. After adjusting for the effects of temperature a 10 μg m−3 increase in black smoke concentration on a given day was associated with a 0.9% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.3–1.5%] increase in all cause mortality and a 3.1% [95% CI:1.4–4.9%] increase in respiratory mortality over the ensuing 30-day period. In contrast for a 10 μg m−3 increase in black smoke concentration over 0–3 day lag period, the temperature adjusted exposure mortality associations were substantially lower (0.2% [95% CI: −0.0–0.4%] and 0.3% [95% CI: −0.2–0.8%] increases for all-cause and respiratory mortality respectively).
This study has provided evidence of association between black smoke exposure and mortality at longer lag periods than have been investigated in the majority of time series analyses.
LanguageEnglish
Pages1-6
Number of pages6
JournalEnvironment International
Volume50
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2012

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smoke
atmospheric pollution
mortality
confidence interval
temperature
conurbation
time series

Keywords

  • short/medium-term variations
  • black smoke
  • air pollution
  • mortality
  • glasgow conurbation
  • glasgow

Cite this

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title = "Associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the Glasgow conurbation, UK",
abstract = "To examine associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the population of Glasgow and the adjacent towns of Renfrew and Paisley over a 25-year period at different time lags (0–30 days).Generalised linear (Poisson) models were used to investigate the relationship between lagged black smoke concentrations and daily mortality, with allowance for confounding by cold temperature, between 1974 and 1998.When a range of lag periods were investigated significant associations were noted between temperature-adjusted black smoke exposure and all-cause mortality at lag periods of 13–18 and 19–24 days, and respiratory mortality at lag periods of 1–6, 7–12, and 13–18 days. Significant associations between cardiovascular mortality and temperature-adjusted black smoke were not observed. After adjusting for the effects of temperature a 10 μg m−3 increase in black smoke concentration on a given day was associated with a 0.9{\%} [95{\%} Confidence Interval (CI): 0.3–1.5{\%}] increase in all cause mortality and a 3.1{\%} [95{\%} CI:1.4–4.9{\%}] increase in respiratory mortality over the ensuing 30-day period. In contrast for a 10 μg m−3 increase in black smoke concentration over 0–3 day lag period, the temperature adjusted exposure mortality associations were substantially lower (0.2{\%} [95{\%} CI: −0.0–0.4{\%}] and 0.3{\%} [95{\%} CI: −0.2–0.8{\%}] increases for all-cause and respiratory mortality respectively).This study has provided evidence of association between black smoke exposure and mortality at longer lag periods than have been investigated in the majority of time series analyses.",
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author = "I.J. Beverland and M. Carder and G.R. Cohen and M.R. Heal and R.M. Agius",
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Associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the Glasgow conurbation, UK. / Beverland, I.J.; Carder, M.; Cohen, G.R.; Heal, M.R.; Agius, R.M.

In: Environment International, Vol. 50, 01.12.2012, p. 1-6.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the Glasgow conurbation, UK

AU - Beverland, I.J.

AU - Carder, M.

AU - Cohen, G.R.

AU - Heal, M.R.

AU - Agius, R.M.

PY - 2012/12/1

Y1 - 2012/12/1

N2 - To examine associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the population of Glasgow and the adjacent towns of Renfrew and Paisley over a 25-year period at different time lags (0–30 days).Generalised linear (Poisson) models were used to investigate the relationship between lagged black smoke concentrations and daily mortality, with allowance for confounding by cold temperature, between 1974 and 1998.When a range of lag periods were investigated significant associations were noted between temperature-adjusted black smoke exposure and all-cause mortality at lag periods of 13–18 and 19–24 days, and respiratory mortality at lag periods of 1–6, 7–12, and 13–18 days. Significant associations between cardiovascular mortality and temperature-adjusted black smoke were not observed. After adjusting for the effects of temperature a 10 μg m−3 increase in black smoke concentration on a given day was associated with a 0.9% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.3–1.5%] increase in all cause mortality and a 3.1% [95% CI:1.4–4.9%] increase in respiratory mortality over the ensuing 30-day period. In contrast for a 10 μg m−3 increase in black smoke concentration over 0–3 day lag period, the temperature adjusted exposure mortality associations were substantially lower (0.2% [95% CI: −0.0–0.4%] and 0.3% [95% CI: −0.2–0.8%] increases for all-cause and respiratory mortality respectively).This study has provided evidence of association between black smoke exposure and mortality at longer lag periods than have been investigated in the majority of time series analyses.

AB - To examine associations between short/medium-term variations in black smoke air pollution and mortality in the population of Glasgow and the adjacent towns of Renfrew and Paisley over a 25-year period at different time lags (0–30 days).Generalised linear (Poisson) models were used to investigate the relationship between lagged black smoke concentrations and daily mortality, with allowance for confounding by cold temperature, between 1974 and 1998.When a range of lag periods were investigated significant associations were noted between temperature-adjusted black smoke exposure and all-cause mortality at lag periods of 13–18 and 19–24 days, and respiratory mortality at lag periods of 1–6, 7–12, and 13–18 days. Significant associations between cardiovascular mortality and temperature-adjusted black smoke were not observed. After adjusting for the effects of temperature a 10 μg m−3 increase in black smoke concentration on a given day was associated with a 0.9% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.3–1.5%] increase in all cause mortality and a 3.1% [95% CI:1.4–4.9%] increase in respiratory mortality over the ensuing 30-day period. In contrast for a 10 μg m−3 increase in black smoke concentration over 0–3 day lag period, the temperature adjusted exposure mortality associations were substantially lower (0.2% [95% CI: −0.0–0.4%] and 0.3% [95% CI: −0.2–0.8%] increases for all-cause and respiratory mortality respectively).This study has provided evidence of association between black smoke exposure and mortality at longer lag periods than have been investigated in the majority of time series analyses.

KW - short/medium-term variations

KW - black smoke

KW - air pollution

KW - mortality

KW - glasgow conurbation

KW - glasgow

U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2012.08.012

DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2012.08.012

M3 - Article

VL - 50

SP - 1

EP - 6

JO - Environment International

T2 - Environment International

JF - Environment International

SN - 0160-4120

ER -