Assessing the probability of introduction and transmission of lumpy skin disease virus within the United Kingdom

V. Horigan, P.M. Beard, H. Roberts, A. Adkin, P. Gale, C.A. Batten, L. Kelly

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Several emerging exotic diseases are currently oscillating on the eastern borders of the European Union (EU) including the bovine pathogen Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV). Given the recent transboundary spread of LSDV into the EU, assessing the probability of further expansion is an important part of EU surveillance and can inform policy regarding risk mitigation priorities. This qualitative assessment focuses on the probability of introduction and onward transmission of LSDV into the United Kingdom (UK) for the time period June 2017 to June 2018.
Overall the probability of introduction was considered, at most, to be very low. The probability of onward transmission was considered highest for vector mediated routes either via contact of an infected vector with susceptible cattle or contact of a competent native vector with an infected cattle. Factors with high uncertainty were identified to emphasise their impact on the assessment conclusions and for future research requirements. Medium to high uncertainty surrounds the probability of introduction to the UK via several of the routes assessed, in particular, the species of vectors involved and the illegal/legal import of meat and milk products; all estimates made consequential to these probabilities are therefore underpinned by high uncertainty.
Whilst the assessment was UK centric the knowledge gaps are relevant to the probability of introduction and spread of LSDV in any geographical region. The value of estimating uncertainty lies in the identification of research required to make conclusions more robust.
LanguageEnglish
Pages1-10
Number of pages10
JournalMicrobial Risk Analysis
Volume9
Early online date19 May 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31 Aug 2018

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Lumpy skin disease virus
Skin
Virus
Uncertainty
European Union
Union
Contact
Meat Products
United Kingdom
Surveillance
Milk

Keywords

  • lumpy skin disease virus
  • virus transmission probability

Cite this

Horigan, V. ; Beard, P.M. ; Roberts, H. ; Adkin, A. ; Gale, P. ; Batten, C.A. ; Kelly, L. / Assessing the probability of introduction and transmission of lumpy skin disease virus within the United Kingdom. In: Microbial Risk Analysis. 2018 ; Vol. 9. pp. 1-10.
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Assessing the probability of introduction and transmission of lumpy skin disease virus within the United Kingdom. / Horigan, V.; Beard, P.M.; Roberts, H.; Adkin, A.; Gale, P.; Batten, C.A.; Kelly, L.

In: Microbial Risk Analysis, Vol. 9, 31.08.2018, p. 1-10.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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