Assessing the probability of detecting antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock using mathematical models

Kimberley Kavanagh, Louise Anne Kelly, Emma Snary, George Gettinby

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Abstract

The extent to which farmed animals are infected with antimicrobial resistant zoonotic bacteria such as Salmonella is of concern due to the potential exposure of humans to an additional pool of resistance genes via the food chain, which may present a risk to public health. In Great Britain, monitoring the levels of antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock occurs both as part of a passive surveillance system and as structured surveys. To provide insight into such surveillance activities, a probabilistic model, adapted for non perfect test sensitivity and specificity, has been developed to assess the
probability of detecting resistance at the faecal, pen and farm level.
Using this model, it is concluded that the probability of detecting resistant Salmonella is dependent upon the level of resistance within sample/pen/farm and the diagnostic power of the test used. The likelihood of detecting low level (e.g. emerging) resistance on individual farms was low and therefore the use of selective plating (antimicrobial present in the plate at the specified breakpoint concentration so growth confirms the presence of resistant Salmonella) is recommended. Importantly, the models provide an insight into the sampling and testing methods and could therefore be used to inform any
future on-farm surveillance programmes or research projects.
LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationYoung Statisticians’ Meeting
Place of PublicationNewport
Publication statusUnpublished - 2008
EventYoung Statisticians’ Meeting - Newport, United Kingdom
Duration: 18 Mar 200819 Mar 2008

Conference

ConferenceYoung Statisticians’ Meeting
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityNewport
Period18/03/0819/03/08

Fingerprint

Salmonella
mathematical models
livestock
anti-infective agents
farms
monitoring
probabilistic models
testing
research projects
food chain
public health
sampling
bacteria
animals
genes
methodology

Keywords

  • antimicrobial resistance
  • probabilistic modelling
  • salmonella.

Cite this

Kavanagh, K., Kelly, L. A., Snary, E., & Gettinby, G. (2008). Assessing the probability of detecting antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock using mathematical models. Unpublished. In Young Statisticians’ Meeting Newport.
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title = "Assessing the probability of detecting antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock using mathematical models",
abstract = "The extent to which farmed animals are infected with antimicrobial resistant zoonotic bacteria such as Salmonella is of concern due to the potential exposure of humans to an additional pool of resistance genes via the food chain, which may present a risk to public health. In Great Britain, monitoring the levels of antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock occurs both as part of a passive surveillance system and as structured surveys. To provide insight into such surveillance activities, a probabilistic model, adapted for non perfect test sensitivity and specificity, has been developed to assess the probability of detecting resistance at the faecal, pen and farm level. Using this model, it is concluded that the probability of detecting resistant Salmonella is dependent upon the level of resistance within sample/pen/farm and the diagnostic power of the test used. The likelihood of detecting low level (e.g. emerging) resistance on individual farms was low and therefore the use of selective plating (antimicrobial present in the plate at the specified breakpoint concentration so growth confirms the presence of resistant Salmonella) is recommended. Importantly, the models provide an insight into the sampling and testing methods and could therefore be used to inform any future on-farm surveillance programmes or research projects.",
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Kavanagh, K, Kelly, LA, Snary, E & Gettinby, G 2008, Assessing the probability of detecting antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock using mathematical models. in Young Statisticians’ Meeting. Newport, Young Statisticians’ Meeting, Newport, United Kingdom, 18/03/08.

Assessing the probability of detecting antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock using mathematical models. / Kavanagh, Kimberley; Kelly, Louise Anne; Snary, Emma; Gettinby, George.

Young Statisticians’ Meeting. Newport, 2008.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

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T1 - Assessing the probability of detecting antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock using mathematical models

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AU - Snary, Emma

AU - Gettinby, George

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N2 - The extent to which farmed animals are infected with antimicrobial resistant zoonotic bacteria such as Salmonella is of concern due to the potential exposure of humans to an additional pool of resistance genes via the food chain, which may present a risk to public health. In Great Britain, monitoring the levels of antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock occurs both as part of a passive surveillance system and as structured surveys. To provide insight into such surveillance activities, a probabilistic model, adapted for non perfect test sensitivity and specificity, has been developed to assess the probability of detecting resistance at the faecal, pen and farm level. Using this model, it is concluded that the probability of detecting resistant Salmonella is dependent upon the level of resistance within sample/pen/farm and the diagnostic power of the test used. The likelihood of detecting low level (e.g. emerging) resistance on individual farms was low and therefore the use of selective plating (antimicrobial present in the plate at the specified breakpoint concentration so growth confirms the presence of resistant Salmonella) is recommended. Importantly, the models provide an insight into the sampling and testing methods and could therefore be used to inform any future on-farm surveillance programmes or research projects.

AB - The extent to which farmed animals are infected with antimicrobial resistant zoonotic bacteria such as Salmonella is of concern due to the potential exposure of humans to an additional pool of resistance genes via the food chain, which may present a risk to public health. In Great Britain, monitoring the levels of antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in livestock occurs both as part of a passive surveillance system and as structured surveys. To provide insight into such surveillance activities, a probabilistic model, adapted for non perfect test sensitivity and specificity, has been developed to assess the probability of detecting resistance at the faecal, pen and farm level. Using this model, it is concluded that the probability of detecting resistant Salmonella is dependent upon the level of resistance within sample/pen/farm and the diagnostic power of the test used. The likelihood of detecting low level (e.g. emerging) resistance on individual farms was low and therefore the use of selective plating (antimicrobial present in the plate at the specified breakpoint concentration so growth confirms the presence of resistant Salmonella) is recommended. Importantly, the models provide an insight into the sampling and testing methods and could therefore be used to inform any future on-farm surveillance programmes or research projects.

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