Assessing the impacts of large EV penetration in the UK: analysis of network investments and changes in fuel use

The electrification of transport has been identified as a key policy area, which has multiple implications on the energy system, the economy, and the environment. Focusing on electric vehicles (EV), several examples of studies analysing the impact of a large scale penetration of EVs can be found in the literature. However, these studies usually focus only on the implications for the electricity network. Therefore, the challenge is to understand how the expected rollout of EVs affects the energy system in different dimensions, within and beyond the electric sector.

With the aim of identifying wider impacts of a large rollout of EVs in the UK and to inform effective analysis of energy policy, we use the UK TIMES model to implement four different EV charging scenarios, varying on the timing (i.e. ‘smartness’) of the charge and the location on where it happens. We conclude that ‘dumb’ and decentralised charging will require considerably larger investment on the network than the ‘smart’ and centralised counterparts. The location and ‘smartness’ of EV charging it is, therefore, an important consideration to mitigate potential negative impacts on the power system and to reduce energy and fuel costs for the final consumer. Moreover, we have found that a shift of emissions occurs from the transport to the electric sector. These results show the importance of following a whole system approach in energy policy analysis, to maximise the effectiveness of policies and to avoid carbon leakage.