Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion

P. Gale, A. Brouwer, V. Ramnial, L. Kelly, R. Kosmider, A.R. Fooks, E.L. Snary, EPIZONE (Funder)

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

54 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.
LanguageEnglish
Pages214-225
Number of pages12
JournalInfection and Epidemiology
Volume138
Issue number2
Early online date7 Jul 2009
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2010

Fingerprint

Climate Change
Expert Testimony
European Union
Viruses
African Horse Sickness Virus
Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus
Rift Valley fever virus
African Swine Fever Virus
West Nile virus
Meat Products
Pets
Risk Management
Livestock

Keywords

  • animal pathogens
  • arboviruses
  • climate – impact of
  • risk assessment
  • medical research
  • statistics

Cite this

Gale, P. ; Brouwer, A. ; Ramnial, V. ; Kelly, L. ; Kosmider, R. ; Fooks, A.R. ; Snary, E.L. ; EPIZONE (Funder). / Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion. In: Infection and Epidemiology. 2010 ; Vol. 138, No. 2. pp. 214-225.
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Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion. / Gale, P.; Brouwer, A.; Ramnial, V.; Kelly, L.; Kosmider, R.; Fooks, A.R.; Snary, E.L.; EPIZONE (Funder).

In: Infection and Epidemiology, Vol. 138, No. 2, 02.2010, p. 214-225.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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