Assessing the cascading impacts of natural hazards on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) using Scotland as a case study

Younghwa Cha; Christopher J. White; Paula L. M. Gonzalez; Emily Wallace; David  Harkin; Lou Brett; Kanzis Mattu; R. Sean Smith; Craig Thom; Medlyn D. Alix; Caroline Olbert; Laura Burnett; Elizabeth Hampton; Andrew Sheppard; Alexandra  Campbell; Gareth Rees; Rachael Steller

doi:10.1038/s44304-025-00161-9

Assessing the cascading impacts of natural hazards on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) using Scotland as a case study

Younghwa Cha
, Christopher J. White^*
, Paula L. M. Gonzalez
, Emily Wallace
, David Harkin
, Lou Brett
, Kanzis Mattu
, R. Sean Smith
, Craig Thom
, Medlyn D. Alix
, Caroline Olbert
, Laura Burnett
, Elizabeth Hampton
, Andrew Sheppard
, Alexandra Campbell
, Gareth Rees
, Rachael Steller

^*Corresponding author for this work

Civil And Environmental Engineering

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

This paper explores the cross-sectoral cascading impacts of extreme weather events on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) to evidence the interconnected vulnerabilities across energy, water, transport and telecommunications. Using Storm Éowyn from 2025, cross-sectoral disruptions and impacts to Scotland’s CNI are explored through a co-designed workshop and survey. The study identifies key dependencies on electricity and telecommunications infrastructure, providing vital evidence to inform future preparedness and investment strategies for climate-resilient CNI.

Original language	English
Article number	108
Number of pages	9
Journal	npj Natural Hazards
Volume	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00161-9
Publication status	Published - 26 Dec 2025

Funding

The authors are grateful for the support provided by the Climate Ready Infrastructure Scotland (CRIS) Forum. CJW and EW acknowledge financial support from the Network Rail Climate Change Adaptation Pathways programme (SC0056-SR) on behalf of the CRIS Forum. CJW and YC were also supported by the European Union's Horizon Europe ‘Multi-hazard and risk informed system for Enhanced local and regional Disaster risk management (MEDiate)’ project (grant agreement no. 10049641). CJW was also supported by NERC ‘EMERGE: Multi-hazards and emergent risks in Northern Europe's remote and vulnerable regions’ (NE/W003775/1). EW and PG acknowledge support from the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme 2024-27, funded by the UK’s Department for Science, Innovation and Technology. LB was supported by the Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [EP/T517938/1].

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

critical national infrastructure
natural hazards
cascading impacts
climate change
complex risks

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10.1038/s44304-025-00161-9Licence: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Cha-etal-NH-2025-Assessing-the-cascading-impacts-of-natural-hazards-on-Critical-National-InfrastructureFinal published version, 1.21 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0

Cite this

Cha, Y., White, C. J., Gonzalez, P. L. M., Wallace, E., Harkin, D., Brett, L., Mattu, K., Smith, R. S., Thom, C., Alix, M. D., Olbert, C., Burnett, L., Hampton, E., Sheppard, A., Campbell, A., Rees, G., & Steller, R. (2025). Assessing the cascading impacts of natural hazards on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) using Scotland as a case study. npj Natural Hazards, 2, Article 108. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00161-9

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abstract = "This paper explores the cross-sectoral cascading impacts of extreme weather events on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) to evidence the interconnected vulnerabilities across energy, water, transport and telecommunications. Using Storm {\'E}owyn from 2025, cross-sectoral disruptions and impacts to Scotland{\textquoteright}s CNI are explored through a co-designed workshop and survey. The study identifies key dependencies on electricity and telecommunications infrastructure, providing vital evidence to inform future preparedness and investment strategies for climate-resilient CNI.",

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Cha, Y, White, CJ, Gonzalez, PLM, Wallace, E, Harkin, D, Brett, L , Mattu, K, Smith, RS, Thom, C, Alix, MD, Olbert, C, Burnett, L, Hampton, E, Sheppard, A, Campbell, A, Rees, G & Steller, R 2025, 'Assessing the cascading impacts of natural hazards on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) using Scotland as a case study', npj Natural Hazards, vol. 2, 108. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00161-9

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AU - Cha, Younghwa

AU - White, Christopher J.

AU - Gonzalez, Paula L. M.

AU - Wallace, Emily

AU - Harkin, David

AU - Brett, Lou

AU - Mattu, Kanzis

AU - Smith, R. Sean

AU - Thom, Craig

AU - Alix, Medlyn D.

AU - Olbert, Caroline

AU - Burnett, Laura

AU - Hampton, Elizabeth

AU - Sheppard, Andrew

AU - Campbell, Alexandra

AU - Rees, Gareth

AU - Steller, Rachael

PY - 2025/12/26

Y1 - 2025/12/26

N2 - This paper explores the cross-sectoral cascading impacts of extreme weather events on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) to evidence the interconnected vulnerabilities across energy, water, transport and telecommunications. Using Storm Éowyn from 2025, cross-sectoral disruptions and impacts to Scotland’s CNI are explored through a co-designed workshop and survey. The study identifies key dependencies on electricity and telecommunications infrastructure, providing vital evidence to inform future preparedness and investment strategies for climate-resilient CNI.

AB - This paper explores the cross-sectoral cascading impacts of extreme weather events on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) to evidence the interconnected vulnerabilities across energy, water, transport and telecommunications. Using Storm Éowyn from 2025, cross-sectoral disruptions and impacts to Scotland’s CNI are explored through a co-designed workshop and survey. The study identifies key dependencies on electricity and telecommunications infrastructure, providing vital evidence to inform future preparedness and investment strategies for climate-resilient CNI.

KW - critical national infrastructure

KW - natural hazards

KW - cascading impacts

KW - climate change

KW - complex risks

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DO - 10.1038/s44304-025-00161-9

M3 - Article

SN - 2948-2100

VL - 2

JO - npj Natural Hazards

JF - npj Natural Hazards

M1 - 108

ER -

Assessing the cascading impacts of natural hazards on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) using Scotland as a case study

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

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