Applying uncertainty considerations to building energy conservation equations

I. Macdonald

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

When applying simulation tools in practice uncertainties abound, for example in material properties, casual heat gains and infiltration rates. To facilitate the quantification of the effects of uncertainties, the differential, factorial and Monte Carlo methods have been implemented within ESP-r. An alternative approach is to embed uncertainty considerations within a simulation tool's algorithms. The principle advantages of this method are that the uncertainty is quantified at all times and therefore requires only a single simulation. Coupled with this, it is possible to take control action based on the prevailing effects of uncertainties. This paper details the mathematical techniques required to integrate uncertainty considerations within the full set of building energy conservation equations. A comparison is made between the use of this novel approach and traditional mechanisms of assessing uncertainty. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of the new approach are discussed.

Conference

Conference8th International Building Performance Simulation Association Conference
CountryNetherlands
CityEindhoven
Period11/08/0314/08/03

Fingerprint

Energy conservation
Uncertainty
Infiltration
Materials properties
Monte Carlo methods

Keywords

  • uncertainty analysis
  • risk analysis
  • energy system simulation
  • building simulation

Cite this

Macdonald, I. (2003). Applying uncertainty considerations to building energy conservation equations. 769-776. Paper presented at 8th International Building Performance Simulation Association Conference, Eindhoven, Netherlands.
Macdonald, I. / Applying uncertainty considerations to building energy conservation equations. Paper presented at 8th International Building Performance Simulation Association Conference, Eindhoven, Netherlands.7 p.
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Macdonald, I 2003, 'Applying uncertainty considerations to building energy conservation equations' Paper presented at 8th International Building Performance Simulation Association Conference, Eindhoven, Netherlands, 11/08/03 - 14/08/03, pp. 769-776.

Applying uncertainty considerations to building energy conservation equations. / Macdonald, I.

2003. 769-776 Paper presented at 8th International Building Performance Simulation Association Conference, Eindhoven, Netherlands.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

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T1 - Applying uncertainty considerations to building energy conservation equations

AU - Macdonald, I.

PY - 2003/8

Y1 - 2003/8

N2 - When applying simulation tools in practice uncertainties abound, for example in material properties, casual heat gains and infiltration rates. To facilitate the quantification of the effects of uncertainties, the differential, factorial and Monte Carlo methods have been implemented within ESP-r. An alternative approach is to embed uncertainty considerations within a simulation tool's algorithms. The principle advantages of this method are that the uncertainty is quantified at all times and therefore requires only a single simulation. Coupled with this, it is possible to take control action based on the prevailing effects of uncertainties. This paper details the mathematical techniques required to integrate uncertainty considerations within the full set of building energy conservation equations. A comparison is made between the use of this novel approach and traditional mechanisms of assessing uncertainty. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of the new approach are discussed.

AB - When applying simulation tools in practice uncertainties abound, for example in material properties, casual heat gains and infiltration rates. To facilitate the quantification of the effects of uncertainties, the differential, factorial and Monte Carlo methods have been implemented within ESP-r. An alternative approach is to embed uncertainty considerations within a simulation tool's algorithms. The principle advantages of this method are that the uncertainty is quantified at all times and therefore requires only a single simulation. Coupled with this, it is possible to take control action based on the prevailing effects of uncertainties. This paper details the mathematical techniques required to integrate uncertainty considerations within the full set of building energy conservation equations. A comparison is made between the use of this novel approach and traditional mechanisms of assessing uncertainty. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of the new approach are discussed.

KW - uncertainty analysis

KW - risk analysis

KW - energy system simulation

KW - building simulation

UR - http://www.ibpsa.org/proceedings/BS2003/BS03_0769_776.pdf

UR - http://www.bs2003.tue.nl/

M3 - Paper

SP - 769

EP - 776

ER -

Macdonald I. Applying uncertainty considerations to building energy conservation equations. 2003. Paper presented at 8th International Building Performance Simulation Association Conference, Eindhoven, Netherlands.