Application of hybrid simulation in the fight against Covid-19

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstractpeer-review


Hybrid simulation which combines different simulation modelling methods has become more crucial in supporting decision makers at all levels as part of the effort of tackling the spread of Covid-19 and saving overwhelmed healthcare systems while trying to minimize the economic and social impact of interventions such as lock-downs. In the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic, we have developed an integrated hybrid system dynamics and agent-based model that studies the transmission dynamics and control measures of Covid-19 outbreak across care homes in a network via staff sharing to support decision makers from the Health and Social Care Partnership Lanarkshire and the Department of Health and Social Care in the UK. In the modelling process, we have been working closely with our clients and other care home stakeholders to ensure that the model sufficiently represents the investigated system and is useful for its purpose. Our model results show that sharing staff across care homes increases the risk of SAR-CoV-2 infection for residents and the risk of outbreaks and, therefore, should be limited. Creating smaller bubbles of care homes within which staff movement is restricted has a small impact in reducing the risk of transmission across care homes in most cases. Sharing staff impacts care homes in a network differently depending on their characteristics.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 7 Jul 2021
EventThe EURO Working Group on Operational Research Applied to Health Services (ORAHS) - Online
Duration: 5 Jul 20219 Jul 2021


ConferenceThe EURO Working Group on Operational Research Applied to Health Services (ORAHS)
Internet address


  • covid-19
  • simulation
  • pandemic
  • operational research


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