Analytic probabilistic safety analysis under severe uncertainty

Jonathan Sadeghi, Marco de Angelis, Edoardo Patelli

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)
9 Downloads (Pure)


Exact analytic expressions are given to evaluate the reliability of systems consisting of components, connected in parallel or series, subject to imprecise failure distributions. We also proposed a simplified version of the first-order reliability method to deal with imprecision. This development allows engineers to evaluate the reliability of systems without having to resort to optimization techniques and/or Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, this framework does not need to assume a distribution for the epistemic uncertainty, which permits a robust analysis even with limited data. In this way, the approach removes a significant barrier to the modeling of epistemic uncertainties in industrial probabilistic safety analysis workflows.

Original languageEnglish
Article number04019019
Number of pages9
JournalASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Issue number1
Early online date31 Oct 2019
Publication statusPublished - 31 Mar 2020


  • system reliability
  • failure distribution
  • Monte Carlo simulation


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