Exact analytic expressions are given to evaluate the reliability of systems consisting of components, connected in parallel or series, subject to imprecise failure distributions. We also proposed a simplified version of the first-order reliability method to deal with imprecision. This development allows engineers to evaluate the reliability of systems without having to resort to optimization techniques and/or Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, this framework does not need to assume a distribution for the epistemic uncertainty, which permits a robust analysis even with limited data. In this way, the approach removes a significant barrier to the modeling of epistemic uncertainties in industrial probabilistic safety analysis workflows.
|Number of pages||9|
|Journal||ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering|
|Early online date||31 Oct 2019|
|Publication status||Published - 31 Mar 2020|
- system reliability
- failure distribution
- Monte Carlo simulation