Abstract
Modelling Common Cause Failures (CCFs) is an essential part of risk analyses, especially for
systems such as nuclear power plants, which are required to have high reliability. The Unified Partial
Method (UPM) is the main approach of the UK for modelling CCFs. This paper presents an Influence
Diagram model for CCFs which extends UPM and represents uncertainty on system performance. This
allows more detailed modelling of CCFs in terms of root causes and coupling factors, creates a context
for using information in the industry database, and captures the non-linearity in the way system defences
influence reliability. A structured expert elicitation process is used to construct the Influence Diagram
model and to identify the non-linear structure of the domain, using an example of Emergency Diesel
Generators (EDGs) from nuclear power plants. Insights and experiences from the elicitation process are
described.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 111-128 |
| Number of pages | 17 |
| Journal | Quality Technology and Quantitative Management |
| Volume | 4 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - 2007 |
Keywords
- common cause failures
- coupling factors
- epistemic uncertainty
- expert judgment
- influence
- diagram
- root causes
- Unified Partial Method
