Abstract
Decisions concerning bridge management often rely on experience, engineering judgement and heuristics. In this contribution, with the aid of a real-life case study, we show how a bridge management strategy can be optimized scientifically by applying expected utility theory, a framework already used in econometrics and medicine in order to identify optimal actions in agreement with a risk profile. We show how the engineering decision problem is modelled and how expected utility theory is implemented in order to obtain a set of decision rules that enables the decision maker to identify the optimal action based on structural reliability and costs. The results show that the implementation of expected utility theory in ordinary civil engineering problems is feasible and provides results based on the the risk profile taken into account during the calibration of the model.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | IABSE Conference, Geneva 2015 |
| Subtitle of host publication | Structural Engineering: Providing Solutions to Global Challenges - Report |
| Place of Publication | Zurich |
| Pages | 953-960 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Publication status | Published - 2015 |
| Externally published | Yes |
| Event | IABSE Conference, Geneva 2015: Structural Engineering: Providing Solutions to Global Challenges - Geneva, Switzerland Duration: 23 Sep 2015 → 25 Sep 2015 |
Conference
| Conference | IABSE Conference, Geneva 2015: Structural Engineering: Providing Solutions to Global Challenges |
|---|---|
| Country | Switzerland |
| City | Geneva |
| Period | 23/09/15 → 25/09/15 |
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Keywords
- bridge management optimization
- expected utility theory
- structural reliability
Cite this
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An implementation of expected utility theory in a civil engineering decision problem. / Cappello, Carlo; Zandonini, Riccardo; Zonta, Daniele.
IABSE Conference, Geneva 2015: Structural Engineering: Providing Solutions to Global Challenges - Report. Zurich, 2015. p. 953-960.Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book
TY - GEN
T1 - An implementation of expected utility theory in a civil engineering decision problem
AU - Cappello, Carlo
AU - Zandonini, Riccardo
AU - Zonta, Daniele
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - Decisions concerning bridge management often rely on experience, engineering judgement and heuristics. In this contribution, with the aid of a real-life case study, we show how a bridge management strategy can be optimized scientifically by applying expected utility theory, a framework already used in econometrics and medicine in order to identify optimal actions in agreement with a risk profile. We show how the engineering decision problem is modelled and how expected utility theory is implemented in order to obtain a set of decision rules that enables the decision maker to identify the optimal action based on structural reliability and costs. The results show that the implementation of expected utility theory in ordinary civil engineering problems is feasible and provides results based on the the risk profile taken into account during the calibration of the model.
AB - Decisions concerning bridge management often rely on experience, engineering judgement and heuristics. In this contribution, with the aid of a real-life case study, we show how a bridge management strategy can be optimized scientifically by applying expected utility theory, a framework already used in econometrics and medicine in order to identify optimal actions in agreement with a risk profile. We show how the engineering decision problem is modelled and how expected utility theory is implemented in order to obtain a set of decision rules that enables the decision maker to identify the optimal action based on structural reliability and costs. The results show that the implementation of expected utility theory in ordinary civil engineering problems is feasible and provides results based on the the risk profile taken into account during the calibration of the model.
KW - bridge management optimization
KW - expected utility theory
KW - structural reliability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84971273455&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.iabse.org/Geneva2015
M3 - Conference contribution book
AN - SCOPUS:84971273455
SN - 9783857481406
SP - 953
EP - 960
BT - IABSE Conference, Geneva 2015
CY - Zurich
ER -