An implementation of expected utility theory in a civil engineering decision problem

Carlo Cappello, Riccardo Zandonini, Daniele Zonta

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Decisions concerning bridge management often rely on experience, engineering judgement and heuristics. In this contribution, with the aid of a real-life case study, we show how a bridge management strategy can be optimized scientifically by applying expected utility theory, a framework already used in econometrics and medicine in order to identify optimal actions in agreement with a risk profile. We show how the engineering decision problem is modelled and how expected utility theory is implemented in order to obtain a set of decision rules that enables the decision maker to identify the optimal action based on structural reliability and costs. The results show that the implementation of expected utility theory in ordinary civil engineering problems is feasible and provides results based on the the risk profile taken into account during the calibration of the model.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIABSE Conference, Geneva 2015
Subtitle of host publicationStructural Engineering: Providing Solutions to Global Challenges - Report
Place of PublicationZurich
Pages953-960
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished - 2015
Externally publishedYes
EventIABSE Conference, Geneva 2015: Structural Engineering: Providing Solutions to Global Challenges - Geneva, Switzerland
Duration: 23 Sep 201525 Sep 2015

Conference

ConferenceIABSE Conference, Geneva 2015: Structural Engineering: Providing Solutions to Global Challenges
CountrySwitzerland
CityGeneva
Period23/09/1525/09/15

Keywords

  • bridge management optimization
  • expected utility theory
  • structural reliability

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