An enhanced fuzzy linguistic term generation and representation for time series forecasting

Atakan Sahin, Tufan Kumbasar, Engin Yesil, M. Furkan Dodurka, Onur Karasakal, Sarven Siradag

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

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Abstract

This paper introduces an enhancement to linguistic forecast representation using Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFNs) called Enhanced Linguistic Generation and Representation Approach (ElinGRA). Since there is always an error margin in the predictions, there is a need to define error bounds in the forecast. The interval of the proposed presentation is generated from a Fuzzy logic based Lower and Upper Bound Estimator (FLUBE) by getting the models of forecast errors. Thus, instead of a classical statistical approaches, the level of uncertainty associated with the point forecasts will be defined within the FLUBE bounds and these bound can be used for defining fuzzy linguistic terms for the forecasts. Here, ElinGRA is proposed to generate triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) for the predictions. In addition to opportunity to handle the forecast as linguistic terms which will increase the interpretability, ElinGRA improved forecast accuracy of constructed TFNs by adding an extra correction term. The results of the experiments, which are conducted on two data sets, show the benefit of using ElinGRA to represent the uncertainty and the quality of the forecast.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2015 IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE 2015)
Place of PublicationPiscataway, NJ.
PublisherIEEE
Number of pages8
ISBN (Print)9781467374286
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 Nov 2015
EventIEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, FUZZ-IEEE 2015 - Istanbul, Turkey
Duration: 2 Aug 20155 Aug 2015

Conference

ConferenceIEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, FUZZ-IEEE 2015
CountryTurkey
CityIstanbul
Period2/08/155/08/15

Keywords

  • forecasting
  • fuzzy estimator
  • fuzzy linguistic terms
  • fuzzy numbers
  • fuzzy time series
  • prediction Interval

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