An efficient framework for reliability assessment of power networks installing renewable generators and subject to parametric P-box uncertainty

R. Rocchetta, E. Patelli

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

In the last decades power grid is facing challenging problems due to the uncertain power output of renewable sources and environmental changes, which are drifting weather scenarios toward extremes. Problems of uncertainty are generally tackled by classical probabilistic approaches but in presence of imprecise data and scarce information they often require artificial assumptions hardly justifiable. Conversely, imprecise probabilistic frameworks have been recently developed to better deal with lack of data, epistemic uncertainty and contradictory sources of information, although are generally lacking in computational efficiency. This paper proposes an efficient reliability assessment framework that allows to study highly reliable power grid with distributed renewable sources which power outputs are modelled using parametric probability boxes. An adapted Importance Sampling algorithm is exploited to efficiently propagate the probability boxes and sample rare failure scenarios. The case study selected is a 6-nodes power network, modified to allocate renewable distributed generators. The approach is validated against Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the efficient computational approach allows to conduce a sensitivity study over the imprecision sources, which would have been computationally intractable using brute force approaches. This allowed to identify which among the sources of imprecision affect the most the the failure probability estimate for the grid.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSafety and Reliability – Theory and Applications
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017
EditorsMarko Cepin, Radim Briš
Place of PublicationLondon
Pages3253-3260
Number of pages8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 14 Jun 2017
Event27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017 - Portorož, Slovenia
Duration: 18 Jun 201722 Jun 2017

Conference

Conference27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017
Country/TerritorySlovenia
CityPortorož
Period18/06/1722/06/17

Keywords

  • reliability analysis
  • reliability assessment
  • power network analysis

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