An economic impact metric for evaluating wave height forecasters for offshore wind maintenance access

V.M. Catterson, D. McMillan, I. Dinwoodie, M. Revie, J. Dowell, J. Quigley, K. Wilson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that wave height forecasters chosen on statistical quality metrics result in sub-optimal decision support for offshore wind farm maintenance. Offshore access is constrained by wave height, but the majority of approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of a wave height forecaster utilize overall accuracy or error rates. This paper introduces a new metric more appropriate to the wind industry, which considers the economic impact of an incorrect forecast above or below critical wave height boundaries. The paper describes a process for constructing a value criteria where the implications between forecasting error and economic consequences are explicated in terms of opportunity costs and realized maintenance costs. A comparison between nine forecasting techniques for modeling and predicting wave heights based on historical data, including an ensemble aggregator, is described demonstrating that the performance ranking of forecasters is sensitive to the evaluation criteria. The results highlight the importance of appropriate metrics for wave height prediction specific to the wind industry, and the limitations of current models that minimize a metric that does not support decision making. With improved ability to forecast weather windows, maintenance scheduling is subject to less uncertainty, hence reducing costs related to vessel dispatch, and lost energy due to downtime.
LanguageEnglish
Pages199-212
JournalWind Energy
Volume19
Issue number2
Early online date6 Jan 2015
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 Jan 2016

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Economics
Offshore wind farms
Costs
Industry
Decision making
Scheduling

Keywords

  • wave height forecasting
  • forecast value
  • evaluation metrics
  • offshore wind

Cite this

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title = "An economic impact metric for evaluating wave height forecasters for offshore wind maintenance access",
abstract = "This paper demonstrates that wave height forecasters chosen on statistical quality metrics result in sub-optimal decision support for offshore wind farm maintenance. Offshore access is constrained by wave height, but the majority of approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of a wave height forecaster utilize overall accuracy or error rates. This paper introduces a new metric more appropriate to the wind industry, which considers the economic impact of an incorrect forecast above or below critical wave height boundaries. The paper describes a process for constructing a value criteria where the implications between forecasting error and economic consequences are explicated in terms of opportunity costs and realized maintenance costs. A comparison between nine forecasting techniques for modeling and predicting wave heights based on historical data, including an ensemble aggregator, is described demonstrating that the performance ranking of forecasters is sensitive to the evaluation criteria. The results highlight the importance of appropriate metrics for wave height prediction specific to the wind industry, and the limitations of current models that minimize a metric that does not support decision making. With improved ability to forecast weather windows, maintenance scheduling is subject to less uncertainty, hence reducing costs related to vessel dispatch, and lost energy due to downtime.",
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An economic impact metric for evaluating wave height forecasters for offshore wind maintenance access. / Catterson, V.M.; McMillan, D.; Dinwoodie, I.; Revie, M.; Dowell, J.; Quigley, J.; Wilson, K.

In: Wind Energy, Vol. 19, No. 2, 11.01.2016, p. 199-212.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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