Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems

Thomas Le Guenan, Farid Smai, Annick Loschetter, Samuel Auclair, Daniel Monfort, Nicolas Taillefer, John Douglas

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) that rapidly trigger risk-reduction actions after a potentially-damaging earthquake is detected are an attractive tool to reduce seismic losses. One brake on their implementation in practice is the difficulty in setting the threshold required to trigger pre-defined actions: set the level too high and the action is not triggered before potentially-damaging shaking occurs and set the level too low and the action is triggered too readily. Balancing these conflicting requirements of an EEWS requires a consideration of the preferences of its potential end users. In this article a framework to define these preferences, as part of a participatory decision making procedure, is presented. An aspect of this framework is illustrated for a hypothetical toll bridge in a seismically-active region, where the bridge owners wish to balance the risk to people crossing the bridge with the loss of toll revenue and additional travel costs in case of bridge closure. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) is used to constrain the trigger threshold for four owners with different preferences. We find that MAUT is an appealing and transparent way of aiding the potentially controversial decision of what level of risk to accept in EEW.
LanguageEnglish
Pages297–319
Number of pages23
JournalBulletin of Earthquake Engineering
Volume14
Issue number1
Early online date8 Aug 2015
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2016

Fingerprint

early warning systems
early warning system
Alarm systems
Earthquakes
earthquakes
earthquake
Toll bridges
actuators
revenue
Brakes
brakes
thresholds
shaking
decision making
Decision making
travel
closures
costs
requirements
Costs

Keywords

  • earthquake early warning (EEW)
  • decision making
  • end-user preferences
  • bridges
  • thresholds
  • multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT)

Cite this

Le Guenan, T., Smai, F., Loschetter, A., Auclair, S., Monfort, D., Taillefer, N., & Douglas, J. (2016). Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 14(1), 297–319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9802-6
Le Guenan, Thomas ; Smai, Farid ; Loschetter, Annick ; Auclair, Samuel ; Monfort, Daniel ; Taillefer, Nicolas ; Douglas, John. / Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems. In: Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. 2016 ; Vol. 14, No. 1. pp. 297–319.
@article{5b2db7661b5d4a72a9bcaa8edf662492,
title = "Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems",
abstract = "Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) that rapidly trigger risk-reduction actions after a potentially-damaging earthquake is detected are an attractive tool to reduce seismic losses. One brake on their implementation in practice is the difficulty in setting the threshold required to trigger pre-defined actions: set the level too high and the action is not triggered before potentially-damaging shaking occurs and set the level too low and the action is triggered too readily. Balancing these conflicting requirements of an EEWS requires a consideration of the preferences of its potential end users. In this article a framework to define these preferences, as part of a participatory decision making procedure, is presented. An aspect of this framework is illustrated for a hypothetical toll bridge in a seismically-active region, where the bridge owners wish to balance the risk to people crossing the bridge with the loss of toll revenue and additional travel costs in case of bridge closure. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) is used to constrain the trigger threshold for four owners with different preferences. We find that MAUT is an appealing and transparent way of aiding the potentially controversial decision of what level of risk to accept in EEW.",
keywords = "earthquake early warning (EEW), decision making, end-user preferences, bridges, thresholds, multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT)",
author = "{Le Guenan}, Thomas and Farid Smai and Annick Loschetter and Samuel Auclair and Daniel Monfort and Nicolas Taillefer and John Douglas",
note = "The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9802-6",
year = "2016",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s10518-015-9802-6",
language = "English",
volume = "14",
pages = "297–319",
journal = "Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering",
issn = "1570-761X",
number = "1",

}

Le Guenan, T, Smai, F, Loschetter, A, Auclair, S, Monfort, D, Taillefer, N & Douglas, J 2016, 'Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems' Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 297–319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9802-6

Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems. / Le Guenan, Thomas; Smai, Farid; Loschetter, Annick; Auclair, Samuel; Monfort, Daniel; Taillefer, Nicolas; Douglas, John.

In: Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 14, No. 1, 01.01.2016, p. 297–319.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems

AU - Le Guenan, Thomas

AU - Smai, Farid

AU - Loschetter, Annick

AU - Auclair, Samuel

AU - Monfort, Daniel

AU - Taillefer, Nicolas

AU - Douglas, John

N1 - The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9802-6

PY - 2016/1/1

Y1 - 2016/1/1

N2 - Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) that rapidly trigger risk-reduction actions after a potentially-damaging earthquake is detected are an attractive tool to reduce seismic losses. One brake on their implementation in practice is the difficulty in setting the threshold required to trigger pre-defined actions: set the level too high and the action is not triggered before potentially-damaging shaking occurs and set the level too low and the action is triggered too readily. Balancing these conflicting requirements of an EEWS requires a consideration of the preferences of its potential end users. In this article a framework to define these preferences, as part of a participatory decision making procedure, is presented. An aspect of this framework is illustrated for a hypothetical toll bridge in a seismically-active region, where the bridge owners wish to balance the risk to people crossing the bridge with the loss of toll revenue and additional travel costs in case of bridge closure. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) is used to constrain the trigger threshold for four owners with different preferences. We find that MAUT is an appealing and transparent way of aiding the potentially controversial decision of what level of risk to accept in EEW.

AB - Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) that rapidly trigger risk-reduction actions after a potentially-damaging earthquake is detected are an attractive tool to reduce seismic losses. One brake on their implementation in practice is the difficulty in setting the threshold required to trigger pre-defined actions: set the level too high and the action is not triggered before potentially-damaging shaking occurs and set the level too low and the action is triggered too readily. Balancing these conflicting requirements of an EEWS requires a consideration of the preferences of its potential end users. In this article a framework to define these preferences, as part of a participatory decision making procedure, is presented. An aspect of this framework is illustrated for a hypothetical toll bridge in a seismically-active region, where the bridge owners wish to balance the risk to people crossing the bridge with the loss of toll revenue and additional travel costs in case of bridge closure. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) is used to constrain the trigger threshold for four owners with different preferences. We find that MAUT is an appealing and transparent way of aiding the potentially controversial decision of what level of risk to accept in EEW.

KW - earthquake early warning (EEW)

KW - decision making

KW - end-user preferences

KW - bridges

KW - thresholds

KW - multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT)

UR - http://link.springer.com/journal/10518

UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9802-6

U2 - 10.1007/s10518-015-9802-6

DO - 10.1007/s10518-015-9802-6

M3 - Article

VL - 14

SP - 297

EP - 319

JO - Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

T2 - Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

JF - Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

SN - 1570-761X

IS - 1

ER -

Le Guenan T, Smai F, Loschetter A, Auclair S, Monfort D, Taillefer N et al. Accounting for end-user preferences in earthquake early warning systems. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. 2016 Jan 1;14(1):297–319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9802-6