A variance-based estimation of the resilience indices in the preliminary design optimisation of engineering systems under epistemic uncertainty

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

This paper presents novel heuristics for the fast conservative approximation of resilience indices in the preliminary design optimisation of engineering systems under uncertainty. Since the uncertain in the early phases of the design process is mainly of an epistemic nature, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence is proposed as the reasoning framework. The heuristics proposed in this paper are used to partition the uncertainty space in a collection of subsets that is smaller than the full set of focal elements but still provides a good approximation of Belief and Plausibility. Under suitable assumptions, this methodology renders the approximation of the Belief and Plausibility curves cost-effective for large-scale evidence-based models. Its application to the preliminary-design sizing of a small spacecraft solar array under epistemic uncertainty will be demonstrated.
LanguageEnglish
Pages1-9
Number of pages9
Publication statusPublished - 25 Sep 2017
EventEUROGEN 2017 - Naval Engineering School, Madrid, Spain
Duration: 13 Sep 201715 Sep 2017

Conference

ConferenceEUROGEN 2017
CountrySpain
CityMadrid
Period13/09/1715/09/17

Fingerprint

Systems engineering
Spacecraft
Design optimization
Uncertainty
Costs

Keywords

  • uncertainty quantification
  • evidence theory
  • optimisation under uncertainty
  • systems engineering
  • spacecraft

Cite this

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title = "A variance-based estimation of the resilience indices in the preliminary design optimisation of engineering systems under epistemic uncertainty",
abstract = "This paper presents novel heuristics for the fast conservative approximation of resilience indices in the preliminary design optimisation of engineering systems under uncertainty. Since the uncertain in the early phases of the design process is mainly of an epistemic nature, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence is proposed as the reasoning framework. The heuristics proposed in this paper are used to partition the uncertainty space in a collection of subsets that is smaller than the full set of focal elements but still provides a good approximation of Belief and Plausibility. Under suitable assumptions, this methodology renders the approximation of the Belief and Plausibility curves cost-effective for large-scale evidence-based models. Its application to the preliminary-design sizing of a small spacecraft solar array under epistemic uncertainty will be demonstrated.",
keywords = "uncertainty quantification, evidence theory, optimisation under uncertainty, systems engineering, spacecraft",
author = "{Ortega Absil}, Carlos and Gianluca Filippi and Annalisa Riccardi and Massimiliano Vasile",
year = "2017",
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day = "25",
language = "English",
pages = "1--9",
note = "EUROGEN 2017 ; Conference date: 13-09-2017 Through 15-09-2017",

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AU - Ortega Absil, Carlos

AU - Filippi, Gianluca

AU - Riccardi, Annalisa

AU - Vasile, Massimiliano

PY - 2017/9/25

Y1 - 2017/9/25

N2 - This paper presents novel heuristics for the fast conservative approximation of resilience indices in the preliminary design optimisation of engineering systems under uncertainty. Since the uncertain in the early phases of the design process is mainly of an epistemic nature, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence is proposed as the reasoning framework. The heuristics proposed in this paper are used to partition the uncertainty space in a collection of subsets that is smaller than the full set of focal elements but still provides a good approximation of Belief and Plausibility. Under suitable assumptions, this methodology renders the approximation of the Belief and Plausibility curves cost-effective for large-scale evidence-based models. Its application to the preliminary-design sizing of a small spacecraft solar array under epistemic uncertainty will be demonstrated.

AB - This paper presents novel heuristics for the fast conservative approximation of resilience indices in the preliminary design optimisation of engineering systems under uncertainty. Since the uncertain in the early phases of the design process is mainly of an epistemic nature, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence is proposed as the reasoning framework. The heuristics proposed in this paper are used to partition the uncertainty space in a collection of subsets that is smaller than the full set of focal elements but still provides a good approximation of Belief and Plausibility. Under suitable assumptions, this methodology renders the approximation of the Belief and Plausibility curves cost-effective for large-scale evidence-based models. Its application to the preliminary-design sizing of a small spacecraft solar array under epistemic uncertainty will be demonstrated.

KW - uncertainty quantification

KW - evidence theory

KW - optimisation under uncertainty

KW - systems engineering

KW - spacecraft

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