Abstract
Concession contracts are one of the most popular PPP arrangements. However, there are still a few problems regarding the successful implementation of such arrangements, such as estimating a realistic figure for the demand of services offered by the facility. Lake of demand, or demand variation, is a widespread practice when developing infrastructure projects. In the case of concessions, such practices are the origin of significant risk as the forecasted demand is a key variable in the financial and economic evaluation of any PPP project that needs to be accurately identified and then managed. Demand forecasting is a complex and dynamic process, as several inter-related qualitative and quantitative factors affect demand. This paper proposes a system dynamics-based method in which different factors affecting demand are considered and modelled holistically. The system dynamics concept has been employed to build up a set of cause-effect diagrams which will finally be incorporated to develop a conceptual demand model. This model establishes the causal structure of the demand system, which will help to portray and define the impacts of different factors on demand volume.
| Language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | ARCOM 2012 - Proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference |
| Place of Publication | Salford |
| Pages | 327-336 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Volume | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - 5 Sep 2012 |
| Externally published | Yes |
| Event | 28th Annual Conference of the Association of Researchers in Construction Management, ARCOM 2012 - Edinburgh, United Kingdom Duration: 3 Sep 2012 → 5 Sep 2012 |
Conference
| Conference | 28th Annual Conference of the Association of Researchers in Construction Management, ARCOM 2012 |
|---|---|
| Country | United Kingdom |
| City | Edinburgh |
| Period | 3/09/12 → 5/09/12 |
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Keywords
- cause-effect diagrams
- concession
- demand forecasting
- system dynamics
Cite this
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A system dynamics-based method for demand forecasting in infrastructure projects : a case of PPP projects. / Alasad, Rajaa; Motawa, Ibrahim; Ogunlana, Stephen.
ARCOM 2012 - Proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference. Vol. 1 Salford, 2012. p. 327-336.Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book
TY - GEN
T1 - A system dynamics-based method for demand forecasting in infrastructure projects
T2 - a case of PPP projects
AU - Alasad, Rajaa
AU - Motawa, Ibrahim
AU - Ogunlana, Stephen
PY - 2012/9/5
Y1 - 2012/9/5
N2 - Concession contracts are one of the most popular PPP arrangements. However, there are still a few problems regarding the successful implementation of such arrangements, such as estimating a realistic figure for the demand of services offered by the facility. Lake of demand, or demand variation, is a widespread practice when developing infrastructure projects. In the case of concessions, such practices are the origin of significant risk as the forecasted demand is a key variable in the financial and economic evaluation of any PPP project that needs to be accurately identified and then managed. Demand forecasting is a complex and dynamic process, as several inter-related qualitative and quantitative factors affect demand. This paper proposes a system dynamics-based method in which different factors affecting demand are considered and modelled holistically. The system dynamics concept has been employed to build up a set of cause-effect diagrams which will finally be incorporated to develop a conceptual demand model. This model establishes the causal structure of the demand system, which will help to portray and define the impacts of different factors on demand volume.
AB - Concession contracts are one of the most popular PPP arrangements. However, there are still a few problems regarding the successful implementation of such arrangements, such as estimating a realistic figure for the demand of services offered by the facility. Lake of demand, or demand variation, is a widespread practice when developing infrastructure projects. In the case of concessions, such practices are the origin of significant risk as the forecasted demand is a key variable in the financial and economic evaluation of any PPP project that needs to be accurately identified and then managed. Demand forecasting is a complex and dynamic process, as several inter-related qualitative and quantitative factors affect demand. This paper proposes a system dynamics-based method in which different factors affecting demand are considered and modelled holistically. The system dynamics concept has been employed to build up a set of cause-effect diagrams which will finally be incorporated to develop a conceptual demand model. This model establishes the causal structure of the demand system, which will help to portray and define the impacts of different factors on demand volume.
KW - cause-effect diagrams
KW - concession
KW - demand forecasting
KW - system dynamics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84912139887&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.arcom.ac.uk/-docs/proceedings/ar2012-0327-0336_Alasad_Motawa_Ogunlana.pdf
M3 - Conference contribution book
SN - 978-0-9552390-6-9
VL - 1
SP - 327
EP - 336
BT - ARCOM 2012 - Proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference
CY - Salford
ER -