A system dynamics-based method for demand forecasting in infrastructure projects: a case of PPP projects

Rajaa Alasad, Ibrahim Motawa, Stephen Ogunlana

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Concession contracts are one of the most popular PPP arrangements. However, there are still a few problems regarding the successful implementation of such arrangements, such as estimating a realistic figure for the demand of services offered by the facility. Lake of demand, or demand variation, is a widespread practice when developing infrastructure projects. In the case of concessions, such practices are the origin of significant risk as the forecasted demand is a key variable in the financial and economic evaluation of any PPP project that needs to be accurately identified and then managed. Demand forecasting is a complex and dynamic process, as several inter-related qualitative and quantitative factors affect demand. This paper proposes a system dynamics-based method in which different factors affecting demand are considered and modelled holistically. The system dynamics concept has been employed to build up a set of cause-effect diagrams which will finally be incorporated to develop a conceptual demand model. This model establishes the causal structure of the demand system, which will help to portray and define the impacts of different factors on demand volume.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationARCOM 2012 - Proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference
Place of PublicationSalford
Pages327-336
Number of pages10
Volume1
Publication statusPublished - 5 Sep 2012
Externally publishedYes
Event28th Annual Conference of the Association of Researchers in Construction Management, ARCOM 2012 - Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Duration: 3 Sep 20125 Sep 2012

Conference

Conference28th Annual Conference of the Association of Researchers in Construction Management, ARCOM 2012
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityEdinburgh
Period3/09/125/09/12

Keywords

  • cause-effect diagrams
  • concession
  • demand forecasting
  • system dynamics

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