A rigorous statistical framework for spatio-temporal pollution prediction and estimation of its long-term impact on health

Duncan Lee, Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Alastair Rushworth, Sujit K. Sahu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In the United Kingdom, air pollution is linked to around 40000 premature deaths each year, but estimating its health effects is challenging in a spatio-temporal study. The challenges include spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data; uncertainty in the estimated pollution surface; and complex residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the disease data. This article develops a two-stage model that addresses these issues. The first stage is a spatio-temporal fusion model linking modeled and measured pollution data, while the second stage links these predictions to the disease data. The methodology is motivated by a new five-year study investigating the effects of multiple pollutants on respiratory hospitalizations in England between 2007 and 2011, using pollution and disease data relating to local and unitary authorities on a monthly time scale.

LanguageEnglish
Pages370-385
Number of pages16
JournalBiostatistics
Volume18
Issue number2
Early online date24 Dec 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 Apr 2017

Fingerprint

Pollution
Health
Prediction
Two-stage Model
Air pollution
Autocorrelation
Air Pollution
Misalignment
Pollutants
Fusion reactions
Linking
Fusion
Time Scales
Framework
Uncertainty
Methodology

Keywords

  • air pollution estimation
  • Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling
  • health effects analysis
  • spatio-temporal fusion model
  • disease data
  • respiratory hospitalizations

Cite this

Lee, Duncan ; Mukhopadhyay, Sabyasachi ; Rushworth, Alastair ; Sahu, Sujit K. / A rigorous statistical framework for spatio-temporal pollution prediction and estimation of its long-term impact on health. In: Biostatistics. 2017 ; Vol. 18, No. 2. pp. 370-385.
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A rigorous statistical framework for spatio-temporal pollution prediction and estimation of its long-term impact on health. / Lee, Duncan; Mukhopadhyay, Sabyasachi; Rushworth, Alastair; Sahu, Sujit K.

In: Biostatistics, Vol. 18, No. 2, 30.04.2017, p. 370-385.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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