A review of the quarter's economic trends [November 1983]

The British economy is certain to continue growing throughout 1984. Little acceleration of the pace of growth seems likely and some slight deceleration seems the most probable outcome. Consumers' expenditure will be less buoyant than during the current year, with the resulting short fall only partially filled by rising exports and fixed investment. Little acceleration of either earnings or price inflation seems probable and those in employment will see further increases in their real disposable incomes. Corporate profits will continue to improve, facilitating investment and restraining money supply growth. World trade is likely to expand, taking British exports with it, while the somewhat slower pace of domestic growth will restrain imports. Unemployment is likely to remain close to present levels. This Commentary paper also provides an analysis of the current world economic trends.