A review of probabilistic methods for defining reserve requirements

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Abstract

In this paper we examine potential improvements in how load and generation forecast uncertainty is captured when setting reserve levels in power systems with significant renewable generation penetration and discuss the merit of proposed new methods in this area. One important difference between methods is whether reserves are defined based on the marginal distribution of forecast errors, as calculated from historic data, or whether the conditional distribution, specific to the time at which reserves are being scheduled, is used. This paper is a review of published current practice in markets which are at the leading edge of this problem, summarizing their experiences, and aligning it with academic modeling work. We conclude that the ultimate goal for all markets expected to manage high levels of renewable generation should be a reserve setting mechanism which utilizes the best understanding of meteorological uncertainties combined with traditional models of uncertainty arising from forced outages.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2016 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
Place of PublicationPiscataway, NJ
PublisherIEEE
Number of pages5
ISBN (Electronic)9781509041688
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 14 Nov 2016
EventIEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting 2016 - Boston, United States
Duration: 17 Jul 201621 Jul 2016

Conference

ConferenceIEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting 2016
CountryUnited States
CityBoston
Period17/07/1621/07/16

Keywords

  • generation forecast uncertainty
  • load forecast uncertainty
  • forecast errors
  • meteorological uncertainties
  • probabilistic methods

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