A quantitative risk assessment for the occurrence of campylobacter in chickens at the point of slaughter

E. Hartnett, L.A. Kelly, D. Newell, M. Wooldridge, G. Gettinby

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

50 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A quantitative risk assessment model investigating the risk of human infection with campylobacter from the consumption of chicken meat/products is currently being formulated. Here such an approach is used to evaluate the probability that a random bird, selected at slaughter from Great Britain's national poultry flock, will be campylobacter-positive. This is determined from the probability that a flock chosen at random contains at least one colonized bird and the within-flock prevalence of such a flock at slaughter. The model indicates that the probability bird chosen at random being campylobacter-positive at slaughter is 0.53. This probability value has associated uncertainty, the 5th percentile being 0.51 and the 95th percentile 0.55. The model predicts that delaying the age at first exposure to campylobacter can have a significant impact on reducing the probability of a bird being campylobacter-positive at slaughter. However, implementation of current biosecurity methods makes this difficult to achieve.
LanguageEnglish
Pages195-206
Number of pages11
JournalInfection and Epidemiology
Volume127
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2001

Fingerprint

Campylobacter
Chickens
Birds
Campylobacter Infections
Meat Products
Poultry
Uncertainty

Keywords

  • epidemiology
  • bacteriosis
  • infection
  • risk analysis
  • chickens
  • campylobacter
  • modelling science
  • statistics

Cite this

Hartnett, E. ; Kelly, L.A. ; Newell, D. ; Wooldridge, M. ; Gettinby, G. / A quantitative risk assessment for the occurrence of campylobacter in chickens at the point of slaughter. In: Infection and Epidemiology. 2001 ; Vol. 127, No. 2. pp. 195-206.
@article{6479e022bdd84f19a5290a4644725ae0,
title = "A quantitative risk assessment for the occurrence of campylobacter in chickens at the point of slaughter",
abstract = "A quantitative risk assessment model investigating the risk of human infection with campylobacter from the consumption of chicken meat/products is currently being formulated. Here such an approach is used to evaluate the probability that a random bird, selected at slaughter from Great Britain's national poultry flock, will be campylobacter-positive. This is determined from the probability that a flock chosen at random contains at least one colonized bird and the within-flock prevalence of such a flock at slaughter. The model indicates that the probability bird chosen at random being campylobacter-positive at slaughter is 0.53. This probability value has associated uncertainty, the 5th percentile being 0.51 and the 95th percentile 0.55. The model predicts that delaying the age at first exposure to campylobacter can have a significant impact on reducing the probability of a bird being campylobacter-positive at slaughter. However, implementation of current biosecurity methods makes this difficult to achieve.",
keywords = "epidemiology, bacteriosis, infection, risk analysis, chickens, campylobacter, modelling science, statistics",
author = "E. Hartnett and L.A. Kelly and D. Newell and M. Wooldridge and G. Gettinby",
year = "2001",
doi = "10.1017/S0950268801005866",
language = "English",
volume = "127",
pages = "195--206",
journal = "Epidemiology and Infection",
issn = "0950-2688",
number = "2",

}

A quantitative risk assessment for the occurrence of campylobacter in chickens at the point of slaughter. / Hartnett, E.; Kelly, L.A.; Newell, D.; Wooldridge, M.; Gettinby, G.

In: Infection and Epidemiology, Vol. 127, No. 2, 2001, p. 195-206.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - A quantitative risk assessment for the occurrence of campylobacter in chickens at the point of slaughter

AU - Hartnett, E.

AU - Kelly, L.A.

AU - Newell, D.

AU - Wooldridge, M.

AU - Gettinby, G.

PY - 2001

Y1 - 2001

N2 - A quantitative risk assessment model investigating the risk of human infection with campylobacter from the consumption of chicken meat/products is currently being formulated. Here such an approach is used to evaluate the probability that a random bird, selected at slaughter from Great Britain's national poultry flock, will be campylobacter-positive. This is determined from the probability that a flock chosen at random contains at least one colonized bird and the within-flock prevalence of such a flock at slaughter. The model indicates that the probability bird chosen at random being campylobacter-positive at slaughter is 0.53. This probability value has associated uncertainty, the 5th percentile being 0.51 and the 95th percentile 0.55. The model predicts that delaying the age at first exposure to campylobacter can have a significant impact on reducing the probability of a bird being campylobacter-positive at slaughter. However, implementation of current biosecurity methods makes this difficult to achieve.

AB - A quantitative risk assessment model investigating the risk of human infection with campylobacter from the consumption of chicken meat/products is currently being formulated. Here such an approach is used to evaluate the probability that a random bird, selected at slaughter from Great Britain's national poultry flock, will be campylobacter-positive. This is determined from the probability that a flock chosen at random contains at least one colonized bird and the within-flock prevalence of such a flock at slaughter. The model indicates that the probability bird chosen at random being campylobacter-positive at slaughter is 0.53. This probability value has associated uncertainty, the 5th percentile being 0.51 and the 95th percentile 0.55. The model predicts that delaying the age at first exposure to campylobacter can have a significant impact on reducing the probability of a bird being campylobacter-positive at slaughter. However, implementation of current biosecurity methods makes this difficult to achieve.

KW - epidemiology

KW - bacteriosis

KW - infection

KW - risk analysis

KW - chickens

KW - campylobacter

KW - modelling science

KW - statistics

UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268801005866

U2 - 10.1017/S0950268801005866

DO - 10.1017/S0950268801005866

M3 - Article

VL - 127

SP - 195

EP - 206

JO - Epidemiology and Infection

T2 - Epidemiology and Infection

JF - Epidemiology and Infection

SN - 0950-2688

IS - 2

ER -