A quantitative release assessment for the noncommercial movement of companion animals: risk of rabies reintroduction to the United Kingdom

Ashley David Goddard, N.M. Donaldson, D.L. Horton, Rowena Dawn Kosmider, Louise Anne Kelly, A.R. Sayers, A.C. Breed, C.M. Freuling , T. Muller, S.E. Shaw, G. Hallgren, A.R. Fooks, E.L. Snary

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In 2004, the European Union (EU) implemented a pet movement policy (referred to here as the EUPMP) under EU regulation 998/2003. The United Kingdom (UK) was granted a temporary derogation from the policy until December 2011 and instead has in place its own Pet Movement Policy (Pet Travel Scheme (PETS)). A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was developed to estimate the risk of rabies introduction to the UK under both schemes to quantify any change in the risk of rabies introduction should the UK harmonize with the EU policy. Assuming 100 % compliance with the regulations, moving to the EUPMP was predicted to increase the annual risk of rabies introduction to the UK by approximately 60-fold, from 7.79 × 10(-5) (5.90 × 10(-5) , 1.06 × 10(-4) ) under the current scheme to 4.79 × 10(-3) (4.05 × 10(-3) , 5.65 × 10(-3) ) under the EUPMP. This corresponds to a decrease from 13,272 (9,408, 16,940) to 211 (177, 247) years between rabies introductions. The risks associated with both the schemes were predicted to increase when less than 100 % compliance was assumed, with the current scheme of PETS and quarantine being shown to be particularly sensitive to noncompliance. The results of this risk assessment, along with other evidence, formed a scientific evidence base to inform policy decision with respect to companion animal movement.
LanguageEnglish
Pages1769-1783
Number of pages15
JournalRisk Analysis
Volume32
Issue number10
Early online date4 Apr 2012
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2012

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Rabies
Pets
Animals
European Union
Risk assessment
Quarantine
Compliance
United Kingdom

Keywords

  • companion animals
  • rabies
  • risk assessment
  • u.k.
  • quantitative release assessment
  • noncommercial movement
  • risk

Cite this

Goddard, Ashley David ; Donaldson, N.M. ; Horton, D.L. ; Kosmider, Rowena Dawn ; Kelly, Louise Anne ; Sayers, A.R. ; Breed, A.C. ; Freuling , C.M. ; Muller, T. ; Shaw, S.E. ; Hallgren, G. ; Fooks, A.R. ; Snary, E.L. / A quantitative release assessment for the noncommercial movement of companion animals : risk of rabies reintroduction to the United Kingdom. In: Risk Analysis. 2012 ; Vol. 32, No. 10. pp. 1769-1783.
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Goddard, AD, Donaldson, NM, Horton, DL, Kosmider, RD, Kelly, LA, Sayers, AR, Breed, AC, Freuling , CM, Muller, T, Shaw, SE, Hallgren, G, Fooks, AR & Snary, EL 2012, 'A quantitative release assessment for the noncommercial movement of companion animals: risk of rabies reintroduction to the United Kingdom' Risk Analysis, vol. 32, no. 10, pp. 1769-1783. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01804.x

A quantitative release assessment for the noncommercial movement of companion animals : risk of rabies reintroduction to the United Kingdom. / Goddard, Ashley David; Donaldson, N.M.; Horton, D.L.; Kosmider, Rowena Dawn; Kelly, Louise Anne; Sayers, A.R.; Breed, A.C.; Freuling , C.M.; Muller, T.; Shaw, S.E.; Hallgren, G.; Fooks, A.R.; Snary, E.L.

In: Risk Analysis, Vol. 32, No. 10, 10.2012, p. 1769-1783.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Goddard, Ashley David

AU - Donaldson, N.M.

AU - Horton, D.L.

AU - Kosmider, Rowena Dawn

AU - Kelly, Louise Anne

AU - Sayers, A.R.

AU - Breed, A.C.

AU - Freuling , C.M.

AU - Muller, T.

AU - Shaw, S.E.

AU - Hallgren, G.

AU - Fooks, A.R.

AU - Snary, E.L.

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