Abstract
We review methods of calculating the positive predictive value of a test (the probability of having a condition given a positive test for it) in situations where there is no 'gold standard' way to determine the true classification. We show that Bayesian methods lead to illogical results and instead show that a new approach using imprecise probabilities is logically consistent.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference |
Editors | Michael Beer, Enrico Zio |
Place of Publication | Singapore |
Pages | 2628-2634 |
Number of pages | 7 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 9789811127243 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 26 Sept 2019 |
Event | 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2019 - Hannover, Germany Duration: 22 Sept 2019 → 26 Sept 2019 |
Conference
Conference | 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2019 |
---|---|
Country/Territory | Germany |
City | Hannover |
Period | 22/09/19 → 26/09/19 |
Keywords
- diagnostics
- Bayes’ rule
- false positives
- prevalence
- sensitivity
- specificity
- uncertainty
- gold standard