A predictive model of the extent of listerial contamination within damaged silage bales

Louise Anne Kelly, Gavin Gibson, George Gettinby, W. Donachie, J.C. Low

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A computer simulation model which describes the spatial and temporal variation in the extent of listerial contamination within a damaged silage bale is presented. The silage bale is assumed to be split into a number of distinct sites and these sites are represented by a two dimensional lattice structure. Each site is
classified in relation to its listerial composition. This classification results in three states which are dormant, active and unpopulated. Sites change state as a result of the movement of oxygen through the bale. This movement is initiated when a hole is punched in the plastic covering of the bale. The model is stochastic in nature and at any time following damage, the proportion of the bale which is contaminated is calculated. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of contaminated sites is predicted. The models are a first attempt at introducing structure into the
selection process for feeding silage. We highlight areas of future research which will be invaluable for validation and practical use of the model.
LanguageEnglish
Pages171-188
Number of pages18
JournalQuantitative Microbiology
Volume2
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2000

Fingerprint

Silage
Computer Simulation
Plastics
Oxygen

Keywords

  • listeria monocytogenes
  • computer simulation
  • mathematical modelling
  • big-bale silage

Cite this

Kelly, Louise Anne ; Gibson, Gavin ; Gettinby, George ; Donachie, W. ; Low, J.C. / A predictive model of the extent of listerial contamination within damaged silage bales. In: Quantitative Microbiology. 2000 ; Vol. 2, No. 3. pp. 171-188.
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A predictive model of the extent of listerial contamination within damaged silage bales. / Kelly, Louise Anne; Gibson, Gavin; Gettinby, George; Donachie, W.; Low, J.C.

In: Quantitative Microbiology, Vol. 2, No. 3, 2000, p. 171-188.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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