A new model of trend inflation

Joshua Chan, Gary Koop, Simon M. Potter

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

28 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.
LanguageEnglish
Pages94-106
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Business and Economic Statistics
Volume31
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Fingerprint

Inflation
inflation
trend
Model
Unobserved Components
Interval
Stochastic Volatility Model
Trends
Gaussian Model
State-space Model
Econometrics
Persistence
econometrics
Exercise
persistence
Forecasting
Random walk
Time-varying
simulation
Alternatives

Keywords

  • trend inflation
  • constrained inflation
  • non-linear state space model
  • underlying inflation
  • inflation targeting
  • inflation forecasting

Cite this

Chan, Joshua ; Koop, Gary ; Potter, Simon M. / A new model of trend inflation. In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 2013 ; Vol. 31, No. 1. pp. 94-106.
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A new model of trend inflation. / Chan, Joshua; Koop, Gary; Potter, Simon M.

In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 31, No. 1, 2013, p. 94-106.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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