A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada: the role of industry, provincial, national and external factors

Michele Campolieti, Deborah Gefang, Gary Koop

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We examine fluctuations in employment growth using Canadian data from 1976 to 2010. We consider a wide range of models and examine the sensitivity of our findings to modelling assumptions. The results from our most preferred model, which we selected using the Bayesian Information Criteria, indicate that most of the variance in employment growth that is not due to the idiosyncratic error comes from domestic sources, with most of this coming from industry and provincial factors. Overall, we find that external and national factors play a much smaller role in employment fluctuations than in earlier research. We provide some possible explanations for these differences and discuss the implications of our findings for public policy and theory.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)257–275
Number of pages19
JournalJournal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Volume41
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2014

Keywords

  • employment fluctuations
  • dynamic factor model
  • disaggregated shocks
  • domestic shocks
  • external shocks

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