A multi-level approach to flooding risk estimation of passenger ships

Against the background of using the Index of Subdivision as a reference to address the safety level of ships when damaged, following primarily collision incidents, the EC-funded FLARE project is making inroads towards a direct assessment of flooding risk, which is ship, operating environment, and accident-type specific by addressing all the underlying elements, using a two-level approach; level 1 being semi-empirical with risk models informed through a newly composed accident database and level 2 with flooding risk, in the form of Potential Loss of Life, calculated from first principles, using time-domain flooding simulation tools and evacuation analyses in pertinent emergencies. In addition to addressing all accident types and modes of loss, the FLARE framework and methodology target active and passive measures of risk prevention and control, hence with application potential to both newbuildings and existing ships as well as facilitate real-time flooding risk evaluation for risk monitoring and effective control in emergencies. A key objective of the FLARE project is to provide the technical basis and a proposal for the revision of relevant IMO regulations towards a risk-based approach to contain and control flooding emergencies. The paper provides a complete example of one cruise ship and one RoPax where levels 1 and 2 of flooding risk evaluation are presented and discussed, and a summary of results for a further 8 sample ships from Project FLARE, leading to conclusions on the progress made and recommendations for the way forward.