A multi layer evidence network model for the design process of space systems under epistemic uncertainty

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The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method for the design process of complex systems affected by epistemic uncertainty. In particular, a multi-layer network is proposed to model the whole design process and describe the transition between adjacent phases. Each layer represents a design phase with a particular detail definition, each node a subsystem and each link a sharing of information. The network is used to quantify and propagate uncertainty through the different layers (design phases) where, proceeding from phase A to phase F, the detail of the mathematical model is increased. Thus, it can be considered as a multi-fidelity approach for the design of a complex system affected by epistemic uncertainty. The framework of Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) is used to model epistemic uncertainty. The model is then called Multi-Layer Evidence Network Model (ML-ENM).
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Evolutionary and Deterministic Methods for Design, Optimization and Control in Engineering and Sciences
EditorsA. Gaspar-Cunha, J. Periaux, K.C. Giannakoglou, N.R. Quagliarella, D. Greiner
Place of PublicationCham, Switzerland
Number of pages17
ISBN (Electronic)9783030574222
ISBN (Print)9783030574215
Publication statusPublished - 24 Nov 2020

Publication series

NameComputational Methods in Applied Sciences


  • multy-layer evidence network model
  • evidence theory
  • robust design


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