A multi layer evidence network model for the design process of SpaceSystems under epistemic uncertainty

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method for the design process of complex systems affected by epistemicuncertainty. In particular, a multi-layer network is proposed to model the whole design process and describe the transitionbetween adjacent phases. Each layer represents a design phase with a particular detail definition, each node a subsystemand each link a sharing of information. The network is used to quantify and propagate uncertainty through the differentlayers (design phases) where, proceeding from phase A to phase F, the detail of the mathematical model is increased. Thus,it can be considered as a multi-fidelity approach for the design of a complex system affected by epistemic uncertainty.The framework of Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) is used to model epistemic uncertainty and the model isthen called Multi-Layer Evidence Network Model (ML-ENM).