Abstract
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1185-1200 |
| Number of pages | 16 |
| Journal | Statistical Methods in Medical Research |
| Volume | 25 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 31 Aug 2016 |
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Keywords
- MMR
- vaccine
- vaccine rate
- spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model
- R package CARBayesST
- Scotland
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A model to estimate the impact of changes in MMR vaccine uptake on inequalities in measles susceptibility in Scotland. / Napier, Gary; Lee, Duncan; Robertson, Chris; Lawson, Andrew; Pollock, Kevin G.
In: Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Vol. 25, No. 4, 31.08.2016, p. 1185-1200.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
TY - JOUR
T1 - A model to estimate the impact of changes in MMR vaccine uptake on inequalities in measles susceptibility in Scotland
AU - Napier, Gary
AU - Lee, Duncan
AU - Robertson, Chris
AU - Lawson, Andrew
AU - Pollock, Kevin G.
PY - 2016/8/31
Y1 - 2016/8/31
N2 - In 1998 an article published by Andrew Wakefield in The Lancet (volume 351, pages 637-641) led to concerns surrounding the safety of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine, by associating it with an increased risk of autism. The paper was later retracted after multiple epidemiological studies failed to fnd any association, but a substantial decrease in UK vaccination rates was observed in the years following publication. This paper proposes a novel spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model with accompanying software (the R package CARBayesST) to simultaneously address three key epidemiological questions about vaccination rates: (i) what impact did the controversy have on the overall temporal trend in vaccination rates in Scotland; (ii) did the magnitude of the spatial inequality in measles susceptibility in Scotland increase due to the MMR vaccination scare; and (iii) are there any covariate effects, such as deprivation, that impacted on measles susceptibility in Scotland. The efficacy of the model is tested by simulation, before being applied to measles susceptibility data in Scotland among a series of cohorts of children who were aged 2-4, in the years 1998 to 2014.
AB - In 1998 an article published by Andrew Wakefield in The Lancet (volume 351, pages 637-641) led to concerns surrounding the safety of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine, by associating it with an increased risk of autism. The paper was later retracted after multiple epidemiological studies failed to fnd any association, but a substantial decrease in UK vaccination rates was observed in the years following publication. This paper proposes a novel spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model with accompanying software (the R package CARBayesST) to simultaneously address three key epidemiological questions about vaccination rates: (i) what impact did the controversy have on the overall temporal trend in vaccination rates in Scotland; (ii) did the magnitude of the spatial inequality in measles susceptibility in Scotland increase due to the MMR vaccination scare; and (iii) are there any covariate effects, such as deprivation, that impacted on measles susceptibility in Scotland. The efficacy of the model is tested by simulation, before being applied to measles susceptibility data in Scotland among a series of cohorts of children who were aged 2-4, in the years 1998 to 2014.
KW - MMR
KW - vaccine
KW - vaccine rate
KW - spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model
KW - R package CARBayesST
KW - Scotland
U2 - 10.1177/0962280216660420
DO - 10.1177/0962280216660420
M3 - Article
VL - 25
SP - 1185
EP - 1200
JO - Statistical Methods in Medical Research
JF - Statistical Methods in Medical Research
SN - 0962-2802
IS - 4
ER -