A model to estimate the impact of changes in MMR vaccine uptake on inequalities in measles susceptibility in Scotland

Gary Napier, Duncan Lee, Chris Robertson, Andrew Lawson, Kevin G. Pollock

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In 1998 an article published by Andrew Wakefield in The Lancet (volume 351, pages 637-641) led to concerns surrounding the safety of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine, by associating it with an increased risk of autism. The paper was later retracted after multiple epidemiological studies failed to fnd any association, but a substantial decrease in UK vaccination rates was observed in the years following publication. This paper proposes a novel spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model with accompanying software (the R package CARBayesST) to simultaneously address three key epidemiological questions about vaccination rates: (i) what impact did the controversy have on the overall temporal trend in vaccination rates in Scotland; (ii) did the magnitude of the spatial inequality in measles susceptibility in Scotland increase due to the MMR vaccination scare; and (iii) are there any covariate effects, such as deprivation, that impacted on measles susceptibility in Scotland. The efficacy of the model is tested by simulation, before being applied to measles susceptibility data in Scotland among a series of cohorts of children who were aged 2-4, in the years 1998 to 2014.
LanguageEnglish
Pages1185-1200
Number of pages16
JournalStatistical Methods in Medical Research
Volume25
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31 Aug 2016

Fingerprint

Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine
Vaccination
Vaccine
Measles
Scotland
Susceptibility
Estimate
Bayesian Hierarchical Model
Mumps
Rubella
Autistic Disorder
Model
Publications
Efficacy
Covariates
Epidemiologic Studies
Software
Safety
Decrease
Series

Keywords

  • MMR
  • vaccine
  • vaccine rate
  • spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model
  • R package CARBayesST
  • Scotland

Cite this

@article{a5d55ed3306a4f12a9faabfe02429e78,
title = "A model to estimate the impact of changes in MMR vaccine uptake on inequalities in measles susceptibility in Scotland",
abstract = "In 1998 an article published by Andrew Wakefield in The Lancet (volume 351, pages 637-641) led to concerns surrounding the safety of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine, by associating it with an increased risk of autism. The paper was later retracted after multiple epidemiological studies failed to fnd any association, but a substantial decrease in UK vaccination rates was observed in the years following publication. This paper proposes a novel spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model with accompanying software (the R package CARBayesST) to simultaneously address three key epidemiological questions about vaccination rates: (i) what impact did the controversy have on the overall temporal trend in vaccination rates in Scotland; (ii) did the magnitude of the spatial inequality in measles susceptibility in Scotland increase due to the MMR vaccination scare; and (iii) are there any covariate effects, such as deprivation, that impacted on measles susceptibility in Scotland. The efficacy of the model is tested by simulation, before being applied to measles susceptibility data in Scotland among a series of cohorts of children who were aged 2-4, in the years 1998 to 2014.",
keywords = "MMR, vaccine, vaccine rate, spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model, R package CARBayesST, Scotland",
author = "Gary Napier and Duncan Lee and Chris Robertson and Andrew Lawson and Pollock, {Kevin G.}",
year = "2016",
month = "8",
day = "31",
doi = "10.1177/0962280216660420",
language = "English",
volume = "25",
pages = "1185--1200",
journal = "Statistical Methods in Medical Research",
issn = "0962-2802",
number = "4",

}

A model to estimate the impact of changes in MMR vaccine uptake on inequalities in measles susceptibility in Scotland. / Napier, Gary; Lee, Duncan; Robertson, Chris; Lawson, Andrew; Pollock, Kevin G.

In: Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Vol. 25, No. 4, 31.08.2016, p. 1185-1200.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - A model to estimate the impact of changes in MMR vaccine uptake on inequalities in measles susceptibility in Scotland

AU - Napier, Gary

AU - Lee, Duncan

AU - Robertson, Chris

AU - Lawson, Andrew

AU - Pollock, Kevin G.

PY - 2016/8/31

Y1 - 2016/8/31

N2 - In 1998 an article published by Andrew Wakefield in The Lancet (volume 351, pages 637-641) led to concerns surrounding the safety of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine, by associating it with an increased risk of autism. The paper was later retracted after multiple epidemiological studies failed to fnd any association, but a substantial decrease in UK vaccination rates was observed in the years following publication. This paper proposes a novel spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model with accompanying software (the R package CARBayesST) to simultaneously address three key epidemiological questions about vaccination rates: (i) what impact did the controversy have on the overall temporal trend in vaccination rates in Scotland; (ii) did the magnitude of the spatial inequality in measles susceptibility in Scotland increase due to the MMR vaccination scare; and (iii) are there any covariate effects, such as deprivation, that impacted on measles susceptibility in Scotland. The efficacy of the model is tested by simulation, before being applied to measles susceptibility data in Scotland among a series of cohorts of children who were aged 2-4, in the years 1998 to 2014.

AB - In 1998 an article published by Andrew Wakefield in The Lancet (volume 351, pages 637-641) led to concerns surrounding the safety of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine, by associating it with an increased risk of autism. The paper was later retracted after multiple epidemiological studies failed to fnd any association, but a substantial decrease in UK vaccination rates was observed in the years following publication. This paper proposes a novel spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model with accompanying software (the R package CARBayesST) to simultaneously address three key epidemiological questions about vaccination rates: (i) what impact did the controversy have on the overall temporal trend in vaccination rates in Scotland; (ii) did the magnitude of the spatial inequality in measles susceptibility in Scotland increase due to the MMR vaccination scare; and (iii) are there any covariate effects, such as deprivation, that impacted on measles susceptibility in Scotland. The efficacy of the model is tested by simulation, before being applied to measles susceptibility data in Scotland among a series of cohorts of children who were aged 2-4, in the years 1998 to 2014.

KW - MMR

KW - vaccine

KW - vaccine rate

KW - spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model

KW - R package CARBayesST

KW - Scotland

U2 - 10.1177/0962280216660420

DO - 10.1177/0962280216660420

M3 - Article

VL - 25

SP - 1185

EP - 1200

JO - Statistical Methods in Medical Research

T2 - Statistical Methods in Medical Research

JF - Statistical Methods in Medical Research

SN - 0962-2802

IS - 4

ER -