A model-based hybrid approach for circuit breaker prognostics encompassing dynamic reliability and uncertainty

Jose Ignacio Aizpurua, Victoria M. Catterson, Ibrahim F. Abdulhadi, Maria Segovia Garcia

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)
208 Downloads (Pure)


Prognostics predictions estimate the remaining useful life of assets. This information enables the implementation of condition-based maintenance strategies by scheduling intervention when failure is imminent. Circuit breakers are key assets for the correct operation of the power network, fulfilling both a protection and a network reconfiguration role. Certain breakers will perform switching on a deterministic schedule, while operating stochastically in response to network faults. Both types of operation increase wear on the main contact, with high fault currents leading to more rapid ageing. This paper presents a hybrid approach for prognostics of circuit breakers, which integrates deterministic and stochastic operation through Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes. The main contributions of this paper are (i) the integration of hybrid prognostics models with dynamic reliability concepts for a more accurate remaining useful life forecasting and (ii) the uncertain failure threshold modelling to integrate and propagate uncertain failure evaluation levels in the prognostics estimation process. Results show the effect of dynamic operation conditions on prognostics predictions and confirm the potential for its use within a condition-based maintenance strategy.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-12
Number of pages12
JournalIEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and, Cybernetics: Systems
Early online date12 Apr 2017
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 12 Apr 2017


  • prognostics
  • dynamic reliability
  • circuit breaker
  • uncertainty
  • hybrid model
  • physics of failure


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