A general perturbations method for spacecraft lifetime analysis

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

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Abstract

An analytical atmospheric density model, including solar activity effects, is applied to an analytical spacecraft trajectory model for use in orbit decay analysis. Previously presented theory is developed into an engineering solution for practical use, whilst also providing the first step towards validation. The model is found to have an average error of 3.46% with standard deviation 3.25% when compared with historical data. The method is compared to other analytical solutions and AGI’s Systems Toolkit software, STK. STK provided the second best results, with an average error of 11.39% and standard deviation 10.69%. The developed method allows users to perform rapid Monte-Carlo analysis of the problem, such as varying launch date, initial orbit, spacecraft characteristics, and so forth, in fractions of a second. This method could be used in many practical applications such as in initial mission design to analyze the effects of changes in parameters such as mass or drag coefficient on the lifetime of the mission. The method could also be used to ensure regulatory compliance with the 25-year end-of-life removal period set out by debris guidelines.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages15
Publication statusPublished - 11 Jan 2015
Event25th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting - Willliamsburg, VA, United States
Duration: 11 Jan 201515 Jan 2015

Conference

Conference25th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting
CountryUnited States
CityWillliamsburg, VA
Period11/01/1515/01/15

Fingerprint

Perturbation Method
Spacecraft
Lifetime
Orbits
Atmospheric density
Standard deviation
Orbit
Drag coefficient
Debris
Drag Coefficient
Historical Data
Date
Trajectories
Compliance
Analytical Solution
Model
Decay
Trajectory
Engineering
Software

Keywords

  • analytical modelling
  • trajectory modeling
  • orbit decay analysis
  • Monte Carlo method
  • end-of-life disposal

Cite this

Kerr, E., & Macdonald, M. (2015). A general perturbations method for spacecraft lifetime analysis. Paper presented at 25th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting, Willliamsburg, VA, United States.
Kerr, Emma ; Macdonald, Malcolm. / A general perturbations method for spacecraft lifetime analysis. Paper presented at 25th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting, Willliamsburg, VA, United States.15 p.
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Kerr, E & Macdonald, M 2015, 'A general perturbations method for spacecraft lifetime analysis' Paper presented at 25th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting, Willliamsburg, VA, United States, 11/01/15 - 15/01/15, .

A general perturbations method for spacecraft lifetime analysis. / Kerr, Emma; Macdonald, Malcolm.

2015. Paper presented at 25th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting, Willliamsburg, VA, United States.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

TY - CONF

T1 - A general perturbations method for spacecraft lifetime analysis

AU - Kerr, Emma

AU - Macdonald, Malcolm

PY - 2015/1/11

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N2 - An analytical atmospheric density model, including solar activity effects, is applied to an analytical spacecraft trajectory model for use in orbit decay analysis. Previously presented theory is developed into an engineering solution for practical use, whilst also providing the first step towards validation. The model is found to have an average error of 3.46% with standard deviation 3.25% when compared with historical data. The method is compared to other analytical solutions and AGI’s Systems Toolkit software, STK. STK provided the second best results, with an average error of 11.39% and standard deviation 10.69%. The developed method allows users to perform rapid Monte-Carlo analysis of the problem, such as varying launch date, initial orbit, spacecraft characteristics, and so forth, in fractions of a second. This method could be used in many practical applications such as in initial mission design to analyze the effects of changes in parameters such as mass or drag coefficient on the lifetime of the mission. The method could also be used to ensure regulatory compliance with the 25-year end-of-life removal period set out by debris guidelines.

AB - An analytical atmospheric density model, including solar activity effects, is applied to an analytical spacecraft trajectory model for use in orbit decay analysis. Previously presented theory is developed into an engineering solution for practical use, whilst also providing the first step towards validation. The model is found to have an average error of 3.46% with standard deviation 3.25% when compared with historical data. The method is compared to other analytical solutions and AGI’s Systems Toolkit software, STK. STK provided the second best results, with an average error of 11.39% and standard deviation 10.69%. The developed method allows users to perform rapid Monte-Carlo analysis of the problem, such as varying launch date, initial orbit, spacecraft characteristics, and so forth, in fractions of a second. This method could be used in many practical applications such as in initial mission design to analyze the effects of changes in parameters such as mass or drag coefficient on the lifetime of the mission. The method could also be used to ensure regulatory compliance with the 25-year end-of-life removal period set out by debris guidelines.

KW - analytical modelling

KW - trajectory modeling

KW - orbit decay analysis

KW - Monte Carlo method

KW - end-of-life disposal

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M3 - Paper

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Kerr E, Macdonald M. A general perturbations method for spacecraft lifetime analysis. 2015. Paper presented at 25th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting, Willliamsburg, VA, United States.