A framework for the economic-environmental feasibility assessment of short-sea shipping autonomous vessels

Despite the pursued autonomous ships initiatives, the lack of information on emerging technologies and their costs along with the limited investigations of the autonomy effects on logistics render these vessels feasibility assessment challenging. This study aims at developing an overarching framework to support decisions for the transition to autonomous shipping. The ship lifetime capital, operational and voyage expenditures are estimated to quantify the economic-environmental impact and required investments. Several scenarios are defined to address the input data uncertainty. The case of a short-sea shipping cargo vessel operating in the Norwegian waters is studied, considering its conversion to operate autonomously, as well as the next generation crewless ship design. The derived results demonstrate that the converted autonomous ships can reduce the lifetime present value by 1–12% and the carbon emissions by 4%, whereas the new autonomous design leads to their further reductions by 3–4% and 4–7%, respectively. These savings can further increase by 6–7% by reducing the autonomous ships sailing speed, as crew replacement periods are not required. The estimated economic margin indicates that the next-generation autonomous ships can adopt greener technologies, such as hydrogen or green ammonia, to achieve the targeted carbon emissions reduction.