A dynamic framework for managing the complexities of risks in megaprojects

The future of mega infrastructure projects is certain - there will be more risks to manage! Finding the right approaches, tools and techniques for managing the dynamics of risks in megaprojects is both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge is being met through research and innovation combining current approaches with new. How do we combine what we know with what we think to predict what to do when faced with scenarios that are both complex and difficult to predict than what we currently know? The challenges of the future are unlikely to be same as in the past or present. However, learning systems offer us holistic approaches to managing risks in megaprojects. This research adopted a dynamic approach through the combination of Analytical Network Process (ANP) and system dynamics (SD) as an innovative methodology known as SDANP to model complexity in megaprojects design and construction. We communicate how the SDANP model could explore problems caused by Social, Technical, Economic, Environmental and Political (STEEP) risks to construction cost, time and performance and provide insights that lead to organizational learning. We proceed to exemplify by means of a real-life case project in the City of Edinburgh and offer suggestions on what front-ended stakeholders could do to improve the management of risks in megaprojects. For researchers, the findings contribute to the project management theoretical development within the field of megaproject management. For practitioners, it challenges the paradigm of considering the new methodology as a successful risk assessment in megaprojects. The results of the application showed that, when compared to traditional risks assessment methods, this SD model with integrated ANP revealed improvements in managing risks according to STEEP risks criteria. The new framework appears to be a superior solution for solving the dynamic complexities of risks during megaproject design and construction.