A decision-analysis-based framework for analyzing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

George Cairns, Paul Goodwin, George Wright

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    10 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Scenario planning is a method widely used by strategic planners to address uncertainty about the future. However, current methods either fail to address the future behaviour and impact of stakeholders or they treat the role of stakeholders informally. We present a practical decision-analysis-based methodology for analysing stakeholder objectives and likely behaviour within contested unfolding futures. We address issues of power, interest, and commitment to achieve desired outcomes across a broad stakeholder constituency. Drawing on frameworks for corporate social responsibility (CSR), we provide an illustrative example of our approach to analyse a complex contested issue that crosses geographic, organisational and cultural boundaries. Whilst strategies can be developed by individual organisations that consider the interests of others – for example in consideration of an organisation's CSR agenda – we show that our augmentation of scenario method provides a further, nuanced, analysis of the power and objectives of all concerned stakeholders across a variety of unfolding futures. The resulting modelling framework is intended to yield insights and hence more informed decision making by individual stakeholders or regulators.
    LanguageEnglish
    Pages1050-1062
    Number of pages13
    JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
    Volume249
    Issue number3
    Early online date19 Jul 2015
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 16 Mar 2016

    Fingerprint

    Decision Analysis
    Decision theory
    Planning
    Unfolding
    Scenarios
    Decision making
    Augmentation
    Regulator
    Decision Making
    Likely
    Uncertainty
    Methodology
    Modeling
    Framework
    Decision analysis
    Stakeholders
    Scenario planning

    Keywords

    • strategic planning
    • ethics in OR
    • decision processes
    • scenario method
    • education

    Cite this

    @article{fe28f92bde2447fcbf2d8b23fc9fa1a6,
    title = "A decision-analysis-based framework for analyzing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning",
    abstract = "Scenario planning is a method widely used by strategic planners to address uncertainty about the future. However, current methods either fail to address the future behaviour and impact of stakeholders or they treat the role of stakeholders informally. We present a practical decision-analysis-based methodology for analysing stakeholder objectives and likely behaviour within contested unfolding futures. We address issues of power, interest, and commitment to achieve desired outcomes across a broad stakeholder constituency. Drawing on frameworks for corporate social responsibility (CSR), we provide an illustrative example of our approach to analyse a complex contested issue that crosses geographic, organisational and cultural boundaries. Whilst strategies can be developed by individual organisations that consider the interests of others – for example in consideration of an organisation's CSR agenda – we show that our augmentation of scenario method provides a further, nuanced, analysis of the power and objectives of all concerned stakeholders across a variety of unfolding futures. The resulting modelling framework is intended to yield insights and hence more informed decision making by individual stakeholders or regulators.",
    keywords = "strategic planning, ethics in OR, decision processes, scenario method, education",
    author = "George Cairns and Paul Goodwin and George Wright",
    year = "2016",
    month = "3",
    day = "16",
    doi = "10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.033",
    language = "English",
    volume = "249",
    pages = "1050--1062",
    journal = "European Journal of Operational Research",
    issn = "0377-2217",
    number = "3",

    }

    A decision-analysis-based framework for analyzing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning. / Cairns, George; Goodwin, Paul; Wright, George.

    In: European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 249, No. 3, 16.03.2016, p. 1050-1062.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - A decision-analysis-based framework for analyzing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

    AU - Cairns, George

    AU - Goodwin, Paul

    AU - Wright, George

    PY - 2016/3/16

    Y1 - 2016/3/16

    N2 - Scenario planning is a method widely used by strategic planners to address uncertainty about the future. However, current methods either fail to address the future behaviour and impact of stakeholders or they treat the role of stakeholders informally. We present a practical decision-analysis-based methodology for analysing stakeholder objectives and likely behaviour within contested unfolding futures. We address issues of power, interest, and commitment to achieve desired outcomes across a broad stakeholder constituency. Drawing on frameworks for corporate social responsibility (CSR), we provide an illustrative example of our approach to analyse a complex contested issue that crosses geographic, organisational and cultural boundaries. Whilst strategies can be developed by individual organisations that consider the interests of others – for example in consideration of an organisation's CSR agenda – we show that our augmentation of scenario method provides a further, nuanced, analysis of the power and objectives of all concerned stakeholders across a variety of unfolding futures. The resulting modelling framework is intended to yield insights and hence more informed decision making by individual stakeholders or regulators.

    AB - Scenario planning is a method widely used by strategic planners to address uncertainty about the future. However, current methods either fail to address the future behaviour and impact of stakeholders or they treat the role of stakeholders informally. We present a practical decision-analysis-based methodology for analysing stakeholder objectives and likely behaviour within contested unfolding futures. We address issues of power, interest, and commitment to achieve desired outcomes across a broad stakeholder constituency. Drawing on frameworks for corporate social responsibility (CSR), we provide an illustrative example of our approach to analyse a complex contested issue that crosses geographic, organisational and cultural boundaries. Whilst strategies can be developed by individual organisations that consider the interests of others – for example in consideration of an organisation's CSR agenda – we show that our augmentation of scenario method provides a further, nuanced, analysis of the power and objectives of all concerned stakeholders across a variety of unfolding futures. The resulting modelling framework is intended to yield insights and hence more informed decision making by individual stakeholders or regulators.

    KW - strategic planning

    KW - ethics in OR

    KW - decision processes

    KW - scenario method

    KW - education

    UR - http://www.journals.elsevier.com/european-journal-of-operational-research/

    U2 - 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.033

    DO - 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.033

    M3 - Article

    VL - 249

    SP - 1050

    EP - 1062

    JO - European Journal of Operational Research

    T2 - European Journal of Operational Research

    JF - European Journal of Operational Research

    SN - 0377-2217

    IS - 3

    ER -