A cost-benefit approach for the evaluation of prognostics-updated maintenance strategies in complex dynamic systems

J. I. Aizpurua, V. M. Catterson, F. Chiacchio, D. D'Urso

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

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The implementation of maintenance strategies which integrate online condition data has the potential to increase availability and reduce maintenance costs. Prognostics techniques enable the implementation of these strategies through up-to-date remaining useful life estimations. However, a cost-benefit assessment is necessary to verify the scale of potential benefits of condition-based maintenance strategies and prognostics for a given application. The majority of prognostics applications focus on the evaluation of a specific failure mode of an asset. However, industrial systems are comprised of different assets with multiple failure modes, which in turn, work in cooperation to perform a system level function. Besides, these systems include time-dependent events and conditional triggering events which cause further effects on the system. In this context not only are the system-level prognostics predictions challenging, but also the cost-benefit analysis of condition-based maintenance policies. In this work we combine asset prognostics predictions with temporal logic so as to obtain an up-to-date system level health estimation. We use asset level and system level prognostics estimations to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative maintenance policies. The application of the proposed approach enables the adoption of conscious trade-off decisions between alternative maintenance strategies for complex systems. The benefits of the proposed approach are discussed with a case study from the power industry.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationRisk, Reliability and Safety
Subtitle of host publicationInnovating Theory and Practice: Proceedings of ESREL 2016 (Glasgow, Scotland, 25-29 September 2016)
EditorsLesley Walls, Matthe Revie, Tim Bedford
Publication statusPublished - 13 Sept 2016


  • prognostics
  • condition-based maintenance
  • cost-benefit assessments
  • reliability-centred maintenance
  • dynamic dependability


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