A comparison of short-term and long-term air pollution exposure associations with mortality in two cohorts in Scotland

I.J. Beverland, G.R. Cohen, M.R. Heal, M. Carder, Christina Yap, Chris Robertson, C.L. Hart, R.M. Agius

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Air pollution–mortality risk estimates are generally larger at longer-term, compared with short-term, exposure time scales.
We compared associations between short-term exposure to black smoke (BS) and mortality with long-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants and with short-term exposure–mortality associations in the general population from which the cohorts were selected.
We assessed short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the Renfrew–Paisley and Collaborative cohorts (using nested case–control data sets), and compared them with long-term exposure–mortality associations (using a multilevel spatiotemporal exposure model and survival analyses) and short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the general population (using time-series analyses).
For the Renfrew–Paisley cohort (15,331 participants), BS exposure–mortality associations were observed in nested case–control analyses that accounted for spatial variations in pollution exposure and individual-level risk factors. These cohort-based associations were consistently greater than associations estimated in time-series analyses using a single monitoring site to represent general population exposure {e.g., 1.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 3.4%] vs. 0.2% (95% CI: 0.0, 0.4%) increases in mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 3-day lag BS, respectively}. Exposure–mortality associations were of larger magnitude for longer exposure periods [e.g., 3.4% (95% CI: –0.7, 7.7%) and 0.9% (95% CI: 0.3, 1.5%) increases in all-cause mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 31-day BS in case–control and time-series analyses, respectively; and 10% (95% CI: 4, 17%) increase in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-μg/m3 increase in geometic mean BS for 1970–1979, in survival analysis].
After adjusting for individual-level exposure and potential confounders, short-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants were of greater magnitude than in comparable general population time-series study analyses. However, short-term exposure–mortality associations were substantially lower than equivalent long-term associations, which is consistent with the possibility of larger, more persistent cumulative effects from long-term exposures.
LanguageEnglish
Pages1280-1285
Number of pages6
JournalEnvironmental Health Perspectives
Volume120
Issue number9
Early online date6 Jun 2012
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2012

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Air Pollution
Scotland
Mortality
Smoke
Confidence Intervals
Survival Analysis
Population
Spatial Analysis

Keywords

  • air pollution
  • pollution exposure
  • black smoke

Cite this

Beverland, I.J. ; Cohen, G.R. ; Heal, M.R. ; Carder, M. ; Yap, Christina ; Robertson, Chris ; Hart, C.L. ; Agius, R.M. / A comparison of short-term and long-term air pollution exposure associations with mortality in two cohorts in Scotland. In: Environmental Health Perspectives. 2012 ; Vol. 120, No. 9. pp. 1280-1285.
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title = "A comparison of short-term and long-term air pollution exposure associations with mortality in two cohorts in Scotland",
abstract = "Air pollution–mortality risk estimates are generally larger at longer-term, compared with short-term, exposure time scales.We compared associations between short-term exposure to black smoke (BS) and mortality with long-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants and with short-term exposure–mortality associations in the general population from which the cohorts were selected.We assessed short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the Renfrew–Paisley and Collaborative cohorts (using nested case–control data sets), and compared them with long-term exposure–mortality associations (using a multilevel spatiotemporal exposure model and survival analyses) and short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the general population (using time-series analyses).For the Renfrew–Paisley cohort (15,331 participants), BS exposure–mortality associations were observed in nested case–control analyses that accounted for spatial variations in pollution exposure and individual-level risk factors. These cohort-based associations were consistently greater than associations estimated in time-series analyses using a single monitoring site to represent general population exposure {e.g., 1.8{\%} [95{\%} confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 3.4{\%}] vs. 0.2{\%} (95{\%} CI: 0.0, 0.4{\%}) increases in mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 3-day lag BS, respectively}. Exposure–mortality associations were of larger magnitude for longer exposure periods [e.g., 3.4{\%} (95{\%} CI: –0.7, 7.7{\%}) and 0.9{\%} (95{\%} CI: 0.3, 1.5{\%}) increases in all-cause mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 31-day BS in case–control and time-series analyses, respectively; and 10{\%} (95{\%} CI: 4, 17{\%}) increase in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-μg/m3 increase in geometic mean BS for 1970–1979, in survival analysis].After adjusting for individual-level exposure and potential confounders, short-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants were of greater magnitude than in comparable general population time-series study analyses. However, short-term exposure–mortality associations were substantially lower than equivalent long-term associations, which is consistent with the possibility of larger, more persistent cumulative effects from long-term exposures.",
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A comparison of short-term and long-term air pollution exposure associations with mortality in two cohorts in Scotland. / Beverland, I.J.; Cohen, G.R.; Heal, M.R.; Carder, M.; Yap, Christina; Robertson, Chris; Hart, C.L.; Agius, R.M.

In: Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 120, No. 9, 09.2012, p. 1280-1285.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - A comparison of short-term and long-term air pollution exposure associations with mortality in two cohorts in Scotland

AU - Beverland, I.J.

AU - Cohen, G.R.

AU - Heal, M.R.

AU - Carder, M.

AU - Yap, Christina

AU - Robertson, Chris

AU - Hart, C.L.

AU - Agius, R.M.

N1 - DOI correct but not working - DHS

PY - 2012/9

Y1 - 2012/9

N2 - Air pollution–mortality risk estimates are generally larger at longer-term, compared with short-term, exposure time scales.We compared associations between short-term exposure to black smoke (BS) and mortality with long-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants and with short-term exposure–mortality associations in the general population from which the cohorts were selected.We assessed short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the Renfrew–Paisley and Collaborative cohorts (using nested case–control data sets), and compared them with long-term exposure–mortality associations (using a multilevel spatiotemporal exposure model and survival analyses) and short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the general population (using time-series analyses).For the Renfrew–Paisley cohort (15,331 participants), BS exposure–mortality associations were observed in nested case–control analyses that accounted for spatial variations in pollution exposure and individual-level risk factors. These cohort-based associations were consistently greater than associations estimated in time-series analyses using a single monitoring site to represent general population exposure {e.g., 1.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 3.4%] vs. 0.2% (95% CI: 0.0, 0.4%) increases in mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 3-day lag BS, respectively}. Exposure–mortality associations were of larger magnitude for longer exposure periods [e.g., 3.4% (95% CI: –0.7, 7.7%) and 0.9% (95% CI: 0.3, 1.5%) increases in all-cause mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 31-day BS in case–control and time-series analyses, respectively; and 10% (95% CI: 4, 17%) increase in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-μg/m3 increase in geometic mean BS for 1970–1979, in survival analysis].After adjusting for individual-level exposure and potential confounders, short-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants were of greater magnitude than in comparable general population time-series study analyses. However, short-term exposure–mortality associations were substantially lower than equivalent long-term associations, which is consistent with the possibility of larger, more persistent cumulative effects from long-term exposures.

AB - Air pollution–mortality risk estimates are generally larger at longer-term, compared with short-term, exposure time scales.We compared associations between short-term exposure to black smoke (BS) and mortality with long-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants and with short-term exposure–mortality associations in the general population from which the cohorts were selected.We assessed short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the Renfrew–Paisley and Collaborative cohorts (using nested case–control data sets), and compared them with long-term exposure–mortality associations (using a multilevel spatiotemporal exposure model and survival analyses) and short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the general population (using time-series analyses).For the Renfrew–Paisley cohort (15,331 participants), BS exposure–mortality associations were observed in nested case–control analyses that accounted for spatial variations in pollution exposure and individual-level risk factors. These cohort-based associations were consistently greater than associations estimated in time-series analyses using a single monitoring site to represent general population exposure {e.g., 1.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 3.4%] vs. 0.2% (95% CI: 0.0, 0.4%) increases in mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 3-day lag BS, respectively}. Exposure–mortality associations were of larger magnitude for longer exposure periods [e.g., 3.4% (95% CI: –0.7, 7.7%) and 0.9% (95% CI: 0.3, 1.5%) increases in all-cause mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 31-day BS in case–control and time-series analyses, respectively; and 10% (95% CI: 4, 17%) increase in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-μg/m3 increase in geometic mean BS for 1970–1979, in survival analysis].After adjusting for individual-level exposure and potential confounders, short-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants were of greater magnitude than in comparable general population time-series study analyses. However, short-term exposure–mortality associations were substantially lower than equivalent long-term associations, which is consistent with the possibility of larger, more persistent cumulative effects from long-term exposures.

KW - air pollution

KW - pollution exposure

KW - black smoke

UR - http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/a-comparison-of-short-term-and-long-term-air-pollution-exposure-associations-with-mortality-in-two-cohorts-in-scotland/

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DO - 10.1289/ehp.1104509

M3 - Article

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SP - 1280

EP - 1285

JO - Environmental Health Perspectives

T2 - Environmental Health Perspectives

JF - Environmental Health Perspectives

SN - 0091-6765

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ER -