@techreport{3fc67b6c21884718a0bce6689caa911c,
title = "A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election",
abstract = "The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specific effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specific effects estimates provide additional evidence of NorthSouth variations in Conservative Party support.",
keywords = "united kingdom general election, bayesian hierarchical modelling, spatial economics",
author = "Jensen, {Christa D.} and Lacombe, {Donald J.} and McIntyre, {Stuart G.}",
note = "Published as a paper within the Discussion Papers in Economics, No. 12-01 (2011). Paper presented at the North American Regional Science Conference, Miami, Florida (November 9-12, 2011).",
year = "2011",
month = nov,
day = "9",
language = "English",
series = "Strathclyde Discussion Papers in Economics",
publisher = "University of Strathclyde",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "University of Strathclyde",
}