A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election

Christa Jensen, Donald Lacombe, Stuart McIntyre

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Abstract

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specific effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specific effects estimates provide additional evidence of NorthSouth variations in Conservative Party support.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationGlasgow
PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
Pages1-25
Number of pages26
Volume12
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2011

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Keywords

  • united kingdom general election
  • bayesian hierarchical modelling
  • spatial economics

Cite this

Jensen, C., Lacombe, D., & McIntyre, S. (2011). A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election. (01 ed.) (pp. 1-25). Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.