A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election

Christa D. Jensen, Donald J. Lacombe, Stuart G. McIntyre

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

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Abstract

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specific effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specific effects estimates provide additional evidence of NorthSouth variations in Conservative Party support.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationGlasgow
PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
Number of pages26
Publication statusPublished - 9 Nov 2011

Publication series

NameStrathclyde Discussion Papers in Economics
PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
Volume12-01

Keywords

  • united kingdom general election
  • bayesian hierarchical modelling
  • spatial economics

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