A Bayesian Spatial Econometric Analysis of the 2010 UK General Election

Christa Jensen, Donald Lacombe, Stuart McIntyre

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

Abstract

The Conservative Party won the 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom, gaining the most votes and seats of any single party. Using Bayesian spatial econometric methods, we show that significant spatial dependence exists in Conservative voting behaviour and select the spatial Durbin model as the best model to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines these spatial effects as well as the effects of a range of economic, socio-economic, and political variables. Perhaps the most interesting result is that incumbency has effects beyond the incumbents own constituency
LanguageEnglish
Place of PublicationGlasgow
PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
Pages1-48
Number of pages49
Volume10
Publication statusPublished - 5 Apr 2010

Fingerprint

econometrics
election
conservative party
voting behavior
economics
voter
Spatial econometrics
Econometric analysis
Elections
Socio-economics
Economics
Spatial dependence
Voting behavior
Seat
Spatial model
Vote
Spatial effects
Econometric methods
Incumbency
Incumbents

Keywords

  • 2010 UK general election
  • bayesian spatial econometric
  • economic, socio-economic, and political variables

Cite this

Jensen, C., Lacombe, D., & McIntyre, S. (2010). A Bayesian Spatial Econometric Analysis of the 2010 UK General Election. (24 ed.) (pp. 1-48). Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.
Jensen, Christa ; Lacombe, Donald ; McIntyre, Stuart. / A Bayesian Spatial Econometric Analysis of the 2010 UK General Election. 24. ed. Glasgow : University of Strathclyde, 2010. pp. 1-48
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Jensen, C, Lacombe, D & McIntyre, S 2010 'A Bayesian Spatial Econometric Analysis of the 2010 UK General Election' 24 edn, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, pp. 1-48.

A Bayesian Spatial Econometric Analysis of the 2010 UK General Election. / Jensen, Christa; Lacombe, Donald; McIntyre, Stuart.

24. ed. Glasgow : University of Strathclyde, 2010. p. 1-48.

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

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T1 - A Bayesian Spatial Econometric Analysis of the 2010 UK General Election

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AB - The Conservative Party won the 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom, gaining the most votes and seats of any single party. Using Bayesian spatial econometric methods, we show that significant spatial dependence exists in Conservative voting behaviour and select the spatial Durbin model as the best model to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines these spatial effects as well as the effects of a range of economic, socio-economic, and political variables. Perhaps the most interesting result is that incumbency has effects beyond the incumbents own constituency

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Jensen C, Lacombe D, McIntyre S. A Bayesian Spatial Econometric Analysis of the 2010 UK General Election. 24 ed. Glasgow: University of Strathclyde. 2010 Apr 5, p. 1-48.