A Bayesian Spatial Econometric Analysis of the 2010 UK General Election

Christa Jensen, Donald Lacombe, Stuart McIntyre

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

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The Conservative Party won the 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom, gaining the most votes and seats of any single party. Using Bayesian spatial econometric methods, we show that significant spatial dependence exists in Conservative voting behaviour and select the spatial Durbin model as the best model to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines these spatial effects as well as the effects of a range of economic, socio-economic, and political variables. Perhaps the most interesting result is that incumbency has effects beyond the incumbents own constituency
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationGlasgow
PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
Number of pages49
Publication statusPublished - 5 Apr 2010


  • 2010 UK general election
  • bayesian spatial econometric
  • economic, socio-economic, and political variables


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