Scenario Planning, Thinking and Cognitive Biases

Mapping the cognitive processes of futures-oriented decision making with a focus on best-practice efforts. The body of this work includes human-based experimentation, using A/B testing methods on framing effects. The intuitive logics (IL) school of Scenario Planning is the main focus on my investigations. The IL method is divided into separate, yet complimenting stages of Scenario Planning. The cognitive mapping that corresponds with the IL method includes creative, causal, likelihood, and role (playing) thinking.

Results, to date, indicate that the threat-levels of the external business environment strongly effect the magnitude of the various cognitive mechanisms utilized when imaging and strategizing for the future.