Bayesian Argumentation via Delphi

Project: Research


BARD is a multi-year project funded by IARPA and forms part of the larger Crowdsourcing Evidence, Argumentation, Thinking and Evaluation – “CREATE” – program. In BARD, we are designing and producing Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) for using causal Bayesian networks as the underlying engines for arguments, allowing analysts to build and test competing or complementary arguments and to examine the impact of different pieces of evidence in an intuitive environment based on the principles of Delphi

Layman's description

We're designing and testing a system that helps improve group decision-making when presented with uncertain evidence.

Key findings

We have discovered several effective methods that help both groups and individual participants break down complex problems and identify key components necessary for reaching solutions. We have also developed and formalised a novel approach to studying group reasoning processes, the Simulated Group Response Paradigm (SGRP)
Short titleBARD
Effective start/end date1/04/1731/08/18