1st Place: European Energy Markets Conference 2017 Wind Power Forecasting Competition

University of Strathclyde forecasting researcher Jethro Browell and PhD Student Ciaran Gilbert have won an international wind power forecasting competition run by TU Dresden in conjunction with the 14th European Energy Market Conference. The competition required the pair forecast the total generation for a portfolio of wind farms from 2 to 38 hours-ahead every day for two weeks. Their methodology, which was based on regime-switching regression, produced forecasts with an error score 4% lower than their nearest rivals. Ciaran will be attending the EEM conference in Dresden this June to receive a cash prize and present the approach, which is being prepared for released in open-source software.

Energy forecasting is a vital component of modern power system and electricity market operation, and improving the production and use of forecasts is becoming increasingly important as the penetration of weather-dependent renewable generation increases. Improved forecasting will help keep consumer energy bills down by reducing the amount of reserve power required to manage fluctuations in generation and demand. Strathclyde has a strong and growing capability in energy forecasting with active projects in wind, solar and electricity demand forecasting, and engagement from leading utilities including National Grid, SSE and Iberdrola.

Contact: jethro.browell@strath.ac.uk

Details of the forecasting competition can be found at: http://eem2017.com/program/forecast-competition (The Strathclyde team’s username for use in the competition results tables is “p9”)