19952020
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Research Output 1995 2019

2019

Reliability modelling of infrastructure load-sharing systems with workload adjustment

Sun, Q., Ye, Z-S., Revie, M. & Walls, L., 27 Mar 2019, In : IEEE Transactions on Reliability. p. 1-27 27 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Asset management
Costs
Degradation
Water
2018
10 Citations (Scopus)

Supplier quality improvement: the value of information under uncertainty

Quigley, J., Walls, L., Demirel, G., McCarthy, B. & Parsa, M., 1 Feb 2018, In : European Journal of Operational Research. 264, 3, p. 932-947 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Value of Information
Quality Improvement
Epistemic Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Critical Threshold
2017

A methodology for constructing subjective probability distributions with data

Quigley, J. & Walls, L., 19 Jun 2017, (Accepted/In press) Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. Dias, L., Morton, A. & Quigley, J. (eds.). New York: Springer

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Probability distribution
Subjective probability
Methodology
Lottery
Empirical data
3 Citations (Scopus)

Learning from mixed OR method practice: the NINES case study

Howick, S., Ackermann, F., Walls, L., Quigley, J. & Houghton, T., 1 Jun 2017, In : Omega. 69, p. 70-81 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Mixed methods
Energy
Evaluation
Quantification
Risk identification
2016
5 Citations (Scopus)

A model for availability growth with application to new generation offshore wind farms

Zitrou, A., Bedford, T. & Walls, L., 12 Feb 2016, In : Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 152, p. 83-94 12 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Offshore wind farms
Availability
Large scale systems
Restoration
Farm
1 Citation (Scopus)

Risk analysis of supply: comparative performance and short-term prediction

Walls, L., Quigley, J., Parsa, M. & Comrie, E., 13 Sep 2016, Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice: Proceedings of ESREL 2016 (Glasgow, Scotland, 25-29 September 2016). Walls, L., Revie, M. & Bedford, T. (eds.). London

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Open Access
File
Risk analysis
Prediction
Supply risk
Suppliers
Systems engineering

What is the value of a standard?

Revie, M., Bedford, T., Walls, L., Shimell, J. & Baldwin, T., 13 Sep 2016, Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice: Proceedings of ESREL 2016 (Glasgow, Scotland, 25-29 September 2016). Walls, L., Revie, M. & Bedford, T. (eds.). 8 p.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Open Access
File
Managers
Influence diagrams
Procurement
Standardization
Bayesian belief networks
2015

A bayesian network model with epistemic uncertainty: analysis of a medicine supply chain risk

Walls, L., Leerojanaprapa, K. & Van Der Meer, R., 12 Jul 2015, p. 296-296. 1 p.

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract

Uncertainty
Medicine
Risk Management
Hospital Equipment and Supplies
Decision Theory

Dynamic Bayesian network modelling of supply chain resilience: learning from multiple cases

Ali Agha, M. S., van der Meer, R. & Walls, L., 12 Jul 2015, p. 296-296. 1 p.

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract

Modeling
Supply chain
Bayesian networks
Resilience
Uncertainty
2014
36 Citations (Scopus)

A load sharing system reliability model with managed component degradation

Ye, Z., Revie, M. & Walls, L., 22 Apr 2014, In : IEEE Transactions on Reliability . 63, 3, p. 721-730 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
File
Degradation
Random processes
Costs
Water
Industry

Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind power plants

Zitrou, A., Bedford, T., Walls, L., Wilson, K. & Bell, K., 2014, Proceedings of the 12th Wind Integration Workshop. Betancourt, U. & Ackermann, T. (eds.). p. 785-788 4 p.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Wind power
Power plants
Availability
Offshore wind turbines
MATLAB

Empirical Bayes inference with nonlinear homogenizations and correlated intensity functions: use in asset degradation modelling

Blair, G., Quigley, J. & Walls, L., 2014, Safety and Reliability: Methodology and Applications. Nowakowski, T., Młyńczak, M., Jodejko-Pietruczuk, A. & Werbińska-Wojciechowska, S. (eds.). London, p. 171-179 9 p.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Intensity Function
Empirical Bayes
Homogenization
Degradation
Empirical Bayes Method

Mixing methods – lessons from the field

Howick, S., Ackermann, F., Houghton, T., Quigley, J. & Walls, L., 2014, (Unpublished).

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Mixed methods
Modeling
Limited attention
Operations research
Evaluation

Quantification and modelling of epistemic uncertainties for availability risk of future offshore wind farms using expert judgement

Zitrou, A., Bedford, T. & Walls, L., 1 Sep 2014, Safety and Reliability : Methodology and Applications : European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2014. Nowakowski, T., Młyńczak, M., Jodejko-Pietruczuk, A. & Werbińska-Wojciechowska, S. (eds.). Croyden, p. 805–812 8 p.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Open Access
File
Offshore wind farms
Availability
Risk management
Uncertainty
Quantification
44 Citations (Scopus)
Open Access
File
Elicitation
Process Modeling
Managers
Uncertainty
Interaction
2013
4 Citations (Scopus)

A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates

Quigley, J., Wilson, K., Walls, L. & Bedford, T., Dec 2013, In : Risk Analysis. 33, 12, p. 2209–2224 16 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

File
Bayes Theorem
Motivation
Linear Models
Method of moments
Supply chains

A condition based model using performance data for strategic asset maintenance in a water utility

Jirsak, C., Bedford, T., Revie, M. & Walls, L., 2013, ESREL Conference.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Decision making
Water treatment
Water
Hidden Markov models
Random processes

A model for early life availability growth of a system of systems

Walls, L., Zitrou, A., Wilson, K. & Bedford, T., 2013.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Reliability Growth
Availability
Decision Support
Warranty
Modeling

Analysis of wind and wave data to assess maintenance access for offshore wind farms

Dowell, J., Walls, L., Zitrou, A. & Infield, D., Sep 2013.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Offshore wind farms

Availability growth and state-of-knowledge uncertainty simulation for offshore wind farms

Zitrou, A., Bedford, T., Walls, L., Wilson, K. & Bell, K., Sep 2013.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Open Access
File
Offshore wind farms
Availability
Risk management
Electricity
Carbon
1 Citation (Scopus)

Bayes linear Bayes graphical models in the design of optimal test strategies

Wilson, K., Quigley, J., Bedford, T. & Walls, L., Nov 2013, In : International Journal of Performability Engineering. 9, 6, p. 715-728 14 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Systems engineering
Bayesian networks
Managers
Aging of materials
Graphical models

Bayes linear graphical models in the design of optimal test strategies

Wilson, K., Quigley, J., Bedford, T. & Walls, L., Jul 2013, (Unpublished).

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Graphical models
Resources
Optimal test
Inference
Efficacy
Complex projects
Risk management
Distribution network

Managing complex projects for industry: developing a new approach to risk management

Howick, S., Ackermann, F., Walls, L., Quigley, J. & Houghton, T., Jul 2013, (Unpublished).

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Risk management
Industry
Decision trees
Complex projects

Modeling supply risk using belief networks: a process with application to the distribution of medicine

Leerojanaprapa, K., van der Meer, R. & Walls, L., 11 Dec 2013, 2013 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management. Piscataway, N.J.: IEEE, 5 p.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Open Access
File
Bayesian networks
Medicine
Modeling
Supply risk
Supply chains

Modelling systemic risks to inform a repowering decision

Walls, L., Quigley, J., Houghton, T., Howick, S. & Ackermann, F., 30 Sep 2013, (Unpublished) p. 2219–2226. 8 p.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

File
Systemic risk
Modeling
Underdevelopment
Heritage
Empirical Bayes

Technical risk quantification, process and method in practice

Anderson, G. H., Revie, M. & Walls, L., 2013, Proceedings of the 19th AR2TS Advances in Risk, Reliability and Technology Symposium.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

method

Trading off asset performance and condition to model strategic maintenance decisions

Barlow, E., Revie, M., Bedford, T. & Walls, L., 2013, Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis : Beyond the Horizon. Steenbergen, R. D. J. M., van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M., Miraglia, S., Ton, A. C. W. M. & Vrouwenvelder (eds.). Boca Raton, p. 723–731 9 p.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Assets
Maintenance management
Markov decision process
Resources
Time scales
2012

Bayes linear adjustments to improve empirical bayes inference for correlated event rates

Quigley, J., Wilson, K., Bedford, T. & Walls, L., Jun 2012. 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Inference
Empirical Bayes
Homogeneity
Method of moments
Bayesian analysis

Managing projects in an uncertain world: engaging stakeholders, and building a systemic view of risk

Ackermann, F., Howick, S., Houghton, T., Quigley, J. & Walls, L., 4 Sep 2012, (Unpublished).

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Stakeholders
Managing projects
Managers
Consultants
Cost overrun

Managing projects in an uncertain world: engaging stakeholders, and building a systemic view of risk

Ackermann, F., Howick, S., Quigley, J., Walls, L. & Houghton, T., 5 Dec 2012, (Unpublished).

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Modeling supply network reliability and resilience using dynamic Bayesian networks

Ali Agha, M. S., van der Meer, R. & Walls, L., Aug 2012, Pioneering Supply Chain Design: A Comprehensive Insight into Emerging Trends, Technologies and Applications. Blecker, T., Kersten, W. & Ringle, C. M. (eds.). Lohmar, Germany, p. 249-264 16 p.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Bayesian networks
2 Citations (Scopus)

Modelling the availability of offshore wind farm sub-assemblies

Zitrou, A., Bedford, T. & Walls, L., 2012, 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012) . p. 4741-4750 10 p.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Offshore wind farms
Availability
2011

Eliciting subjective probability distributions from groups

Daneshkhah, A., Revie, M., Bedford, T., Walls, L. & Quigley, J., Feb 2011, Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. Cochran, J. J., Cox, Jr., L. A., Keskinocak, P., Cole Smith, J. C. S. & Kharoufeh, J. P. (eds.). John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Probability distribution
Subjective probability
Expert judgment
Expertise
Expert knowledge

Exploring the influence of temperature on the frequency of burst pipes in the Scottish water network

Blair, G., Murray, R., Revie, M. & Walls, L., 2011.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Temperature
Water
Scotland
Drinking water
Weather
9 Citations (Scopus)
Open Access
File
Homogenization method
Frequency Estimation
Frequency estimation
Empirical Bayes
Rare Events
7 Citations (Scopus)
Empirical Bayes
Bayes
System Design
Systems analysis
Engineering

Modelling and managing systemic risks in supply chains

Leerojanaprapa, K., Van Der Meer, R. & Walls, L., 4 Jul 2011.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Systemic risk
Modeling
Supply chain
Supply risk management
Fault

Modelling GB rail timetable risk: analysis of SPADs due to human error on the Scotland network between 2004-10

Montanana, M., Griffin, D., Revie, M. & Walls, L., 2011.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Rail
Modeling
Risk analysis
Human error
Train
15 Citations (Scopus)
Sensitivity analysis
Product design
Product development
Contractors
Industrial applications
2010
3 Citations (Scopus)
Offshore wind turbines
10 Citations (Scopus)

Bayes geometric scaling model for common cause failure rates

Zitrou, A., Bedford, T. & Walls, L., Feb 2010, In : Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 95, 2, p. 70-76 7 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Common Cause Failure
Failure Rate
Bayes
Scaling
Epistemic Uncertainty
8 Citations (Scopus)
Open Access
File
Industrial applications

Modelling and managing reliability growth during the engineering design process

Walls, L. & Quigley, J. L., 2010, (Unpublished) p. 1-6. 6 p.

Research output: Contribution to conferenceKeynote

File
Engineering design
Modeling
Design process
Management science
Growth model
Bayesian networks
Testing
5 Citations (Scopus)

Service operation classification for risk management

Shafti, F., Bedford, T. J., Deleris, L., Hosking, J., Serban, N., Shen, H. & Walls, L. A., 13 May 2010, In : IBM Journal of Research and Development. 54, 3, p. 7:1-7:17 17 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Risk management
Bayesian networks
Electric network analysis
Statistical methods
Managers

Historical exploration - Learning risk lessons from the past to inform the future

Bedford, T., Quigley, J., Revie, M. & Walls, L., Apr 2009, (Unpublished). 79 p.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

File
learning
diagram
colonization
stakeholder
modeling