Personal profile

Personal Statement

João is a Senior Knowledge Excahnge Fellow and Deputy Director at the Fraser of Allander Institute, where he works on fiscal issues, macroeconomics and business engagement.

João has over 10 years' experience as an applied economist. Previously, he was a Senior Fiscal Analyst at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), where he led on analysis of long-term sustainability of the UK's public finances and on the effect of economic developments and fiscal policy on the UK's medium-term outlook. At the OBR, he also worked on Brexit-related modelling for the UK's new external tariff, and was the lead forecaster for public spending. João had previously worked at HM Revenue and Customs on tax modelling and tax gap estimation, and has experience in economic consulting.

João has recently concluded his PhD in Economics at Birkbeck, University of London. His research focusses on determining the impact of government spending on economic growth, for which he has collected and used archival data from the UK Parliament.

João's main areas of expertise include econometric analysis, tax and spending modelling, macroeconomic forecasting, government debt sustainability analysis and demand modelling. He is regularly asked to provide expert evidence to Parliament through the Finance and Public Administration Committee.

Expertise related to UN Sustainable Development Goals

In 2015, UN member states agreed to 17 global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure prosperity for all. This person’s work contributes towards the following SDG(s):

  • SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
  • SDG 8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth
  • SDG 10 - Reduced Inequalities

Education/Academic qualification

Doctor of Philosophy, Economics, Birkbeck, University of London

Oct 2020Jun 2024

Award Date: 13 Jun 2024

Master in Science, Economic Policy, University College London


Award Date: 1 Nov 2012

Bachelor of Science, Economics, Universidade do Porto


Award Date: 30 Jun 2011

External positions

Senior Fiscal Analyst, Office for Budget Responsibility

2 Jul 20187 Aug 2023

Economic Adviser, HM Revenue and Customs

26 Oct 201729 Jun 2018

Assistant Economist, HM Revenue and Customs

7 Aug 201725 Oct 2017

Senior Consultant, Ernst & Young

11 Jan 20161 Aug 2017

Assistant Economist, Office for Budget Responsibility

17 Aug 201523 Dec 2015

Assistant Economist, HM Revenue and Customs

23 Jan 201314 Aug 2015

Statistical Officer, HM Revenue and Customs

4 Oct 201222 Jan 2013


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Collaborations and top research areas from the last five years

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