Projects per year
I am interested in statistical uncertainty and the role it plays in decision making, particularly in the energy sector. Many real world processes are stochastic in nature and in order to make optimal decisions one must approach the problem from a probabilistic perspective. My research to date has focused on energy forecasting, including wind, solar, demand and price, and the role that forecasts play in electricity market participation and power system operation. I have worked extensively on spatio-temporal aspects of renewable energy forecasting, and in addition I have worked on wind and wave forecasting for offshore maintenance/installation.
Expertise & Capabilities
I have broad expertise in energy forecating methodology, GB electricity market arrangments, and the use of probabilistic information in decision-making. I have particular expertise in time-series modelling for very-short-term energy forecasting, and short-term forecasting based on numerical weather prediction.
Master of Physics, University of St Andrews
Doctor of Philosophy, University Of Strathclyde
1 Oct 2011 → 30 Sep 2015
29/06/18 → 28/06/21
Project: Research Fellowship
1/10/17 → 1/10/20
Project: Research Studentship - Internally Allocated › Research Studentship (Internally Allocated)
Research Output per year
IEA wind recommended practices for the implementation of wind power forecasting solutions part 2 and 3: designing and executing forecasting benchmarks and evaluation of forecast solutionsMöhrlen, C., Lerner, J., Messner, J. W., Browell, J., Tuohy, A., Zack, J., Collier, C. & Giebel, G., 17 Oct 2018. 6 p.
Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
Supplementary Material to Leveraging Turbine-level Data for Improved Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting
Prize: Prize (including medals and awards)
Activities per year
Activity: Talk or presentation types › Invited talk
Activity: Visiting an external institution types › Visiting an external academic institution